Nuclear Weapons 698 - The Question of Japanese Nuclear Weapons - Part 2 of 2 Parts

Part 2 of 2 Parts (Please read Part 1 first)
    A land-based nuclear ballistic missile system would be the most vulnerable of the three tradition nuclear warhead delivery systems for Japan. Any enemy would concentrate a lot of nuclear warheads on the land-based Japanese nuclear missiles sites. Japan is so small and so populated that it would be difficult to find a place in the country for nuclear missile silos that was not close to a major population center.
     If Japan elected to put their ballistic nuclear missiles on mobile launchers, they would be too big and heavy to travel over Japan’s network of highways. A possible alternative to roads would be Japan’s extensive high-speed rail network.
     Japan could easily construction a fleet of strategic stealth bombers which could deliver nuclear cruise missiles and nuclear gravity bombs. Nuclear bombers would give Japan a great deal of flexibility to target multiple enemy sites and even change targets while they are in flight. They could be called off before they reached their targets if necessary.
     A Japanese bomber fleet could consist of three squadrons of twenty-four bombers each. That would give Japan a strategic bomber fleet of seventy two jets which would each be the size of a FB-111 strike aircraft. Each bomber could carry four short range cruise missiles with one hundred kiloton warhead each. That would make a total of two hundred and eighty-eight nuclear warheads.
     Geography would seem to render a strategic Japanese bomber fleet a vulnerable proposition. A preemptive strike against Japanese bomber bases could destroy the entire fleet of bombers while they were still on the ground. New developments in air defense systems also mean that strategic bombers are more vulnerable to destruction on their way to targets.
     Considering the three legs of traditional nuclear deterrence, submarines carrying nuclear missiles would seem to be the best choice for Japan. As long as a submarine is at sea it is difficult to locate and attack. The U.S. has aided other allies with the development of nuclear missile submarine fleets and would probably do so with Japan.
    Japan could field a small fleet of perhaps five ballistic missile submarines. Each of these submarines would carry sixteen ballistic missiles with four one hundred kiloton nuclear warheads each. That would mean that the fleet would have a total of three hundred and twenty warheads. If two submarines were at sea at any one time, that would be an arsenal of one hundred and twenty-eight nuclear warheads ready to launch. One problem with submarines is that it is difficult to keep in contact with them during a time of crisis.
     Obviously, it is not in the interest of any of the players on the world stage for Japan to develop a nuclear arsenal. If Japan feels threatened and the U.S. withdraws nuclear protection, Japan is fully capable of developing a nuclear arsenal and sophisticated delivery systems. Such a development would make the security situation in Southeast Asia much worse than it is today.