A lot of ink has been spilled over the decision of the German government to shut down all the nuclear reactors in Germany by 2020. Concern has been expressed over the impact of the shut down on German’s power needs, the German economy, the reduction of carbon dioxide emission for German power generation, etc. Forbes Magazine had a recent headline about it that asked if the decision was “Insane….or Just Plain Stupid.” The German company Siemens projected that the phase out would cost Germany close to 2 trillion dollars. Major shortfalls in the supply of electricity in Germany were predicted.
A recent special edition of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists delves into the projected impact of the German shut down. Its conclusions do not support many of the concerns and may signal a turning point in the arguments for and against the worldwide use of nuclear power.
What has been reported is that although German power generation and carbon dioxide emissions have been dropping since 1990, Germany’s gross domestic products has risen by thirty six percent in the same period, disproving many dire warnings of economic doom caused by the rejection of nuclear power. The nuclear shut down and the support of a move to sustainable alternative energy sources are already showing significant environmental and economic benefits.
Germany began planning and action towards the nuclear phase-out more than a decade ago. Already, movement to renewable energy has benefited farmers, investors and small businesses. It is anticipated that the changes in energy sources will have only a small and temporary impact on the price of electricity in particular and the German economy in general.
If a major first world country such as Germany can phase out nuclear power completely within a decade with little in the way of economic or environmental cost then major arguments in support of nuclear power have taken a serious blow. Nuclear advocates will find it much more difficult to convince governments and citizens that nuclear power is necessary and inescapable.
While the future may look bright for Germany, the question has been raised as to how other countries who were buying surplus electricity from will make up the difference. Some of the other European countries who buy power from Germany may consider building more coal or oil fired power plants which will increase carbon dioxide release and offset German reductions. Or they may build more nuclear power plants with all their attendant problems. Hopefully, the example of Germany will inspire them to explore conservation, energy efficiency standards and renewable energy sources as an alternative to both fossil fuels and nuclear power.
The global nuclear technology industry is very tightly interconnected. Unlike many other sources of energy, if countries that manufacture nuclear reactors and their components or countries that refine uranium into fuel for reactors begin shutting down their nuclear technology involvement, it will become harder and harder for the remaining countries who want to continue using nuclear power to do so. Without a global government, there is no way to stop this trend once it has begun and the report in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists may seen as the tipping point.
From nobelwomensinitiative.org:
