Since the 1950s, arsenals of nuclear warheads have balanced each other in what is called “mutually assured destruction” or MAD. For decades, the possibility that even a small nuclear exchange could severely impact human civilization has “kept the peace.”
There were several times that the world came close to nuclear war, once was a case of a false warning of an incoming missile in the Soviet Union. The radar officer should have notified central command immediately, but he waited for awhile until it was clear that it was a false warning.
During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, there were two incidents. One happened when a Soviet ship crossed a picket line at sea and the other happened when a Soviet submarine lost contact with surface ships. Both times, the captain decided to disregard protocols for immediate escalation and wait until the situation resolved itself peacefully. Now, however, the MAD stability is being eroded by recent developments.
The delivery systems for many of the current arsenals of nuclear warheads are using old analogue circuits which are now being replaced by new digital circuitry. As these systems become more complex, they become more fragile and prone to errors. With the arrival of the Internet and the interconnectivity of global communication systems, it is critical that cybersecurity be tightened to prevent the hacking of nuclear weapons systems. Such hacking could result in causing launch, preventing launch or diverting launch of nuclear warheads in a conflict.
There have always been tactical nuclear weapons along with the big ICBMs that could level cities. These tactical systems consist of small nuclear rocket launchers, nuclear artillery shells and other small nuclear devices. The military planners developed these weapons for use on battlefields. They are intended to destroy enemy troops and weapons but not to destroy whole cities. They have not been used for fear of triggering a wholesale exchange of ICBMs. However, in the past few years. Their precision has been increased to the point where some military men believe that they could be used surgically and not trigger an all-out war.
One of the pillars of the nuclear protocols in nations with nuclear weapons is not to be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict. Unfortunately, this tradition is slipping. Recently Russia announced that if it was in a conventional war with NATO troops and losing, it would consider the first use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. Pakistan is currently deploying tactical nuclear weapons to the border it shares with India. India has threatened to pursue terrorists from Pakistan as they flee back across the border. Pakistan has said that if they do, then Pakistan may use tactical nuclear weapons on its own territory.
Paradoxically, the advances in technology and changes in protocols being applied to nuclear warheads and delivery systems are not making things safer in general but are destabilizing the old MAD model. Fortunately, the number of nuclear warheads worldwide has been reduced from over fifty thousand to under ten thousand through strong non-proliferation treaties. But it has been estimated that even a hundred nuclear detonations in a conflict could end human civilization so there is much work left to be done.
Nuclear weapon test Apache:
