NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg spoke at 18th annual NATO Conference on Arms Control, Disarmament and Weapons of Mass Destruction and Non-Proliferation last Tuesday. He warned that the global arms control system is on the verge of collapse. He added, “We stand at a crossroads. In one direction lies the collapse of the international arms control order and the unrestricted proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, with profoundly dangerous consequences."
Stoltenberg also warned that we are in a “deeply challenging period - for arms control and for our security in general”. He added that the Russian invasion of Ukraine should be seen as part of a long pattern of aggressive behavior. He further cautioned that Moscow now seeks to "undermine the foundations of the international rules-based system. Ignoring, violating or abandoning much of the network of international arms control agreements that have kept the world safe."
Stoltenberg’s remarks came just weeks after Russia suspended its participation in the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty it had with the U.S. It also put a coda on a period of eroding arms control pacts around the globe.
According to recent reports from the Federation of American Scientists, Russia now possesses five thousand nine hundred and seventy-seven nuclear warheads. The U.S. only has an arsenal of five thousand, four hundred and twenty-eight warheads.
Analysts believe that about one thousand five hundred of Russia’s warheads may be retired but still intact. Two thousand eight hundred and eighty-nine warheads are in reserve and one thousand five hundred and eighty-eight warheads are deployed strategic warheads. There are five hundred and seventy-six warheads on Russian submarines and two hundred warheads at Russian heavy bomber bases.
The NATO head also noted that the nuclear threat goes way beyond Russia.
Stoltenberg said, “China is rapidly growing its nuclear arsenal without any transparency about its capabilities. Iran and North Korea are blatantly developing their own nuclear programs and delivery systems.” He also noted that in the long term, the Western nations must rethink and adapt their approach to a more dangerous and competitive world. That will mean that the U.S. must consider engaging with China. China is estimated to have about one thousand five hundred nuclear warheads by 2035.
Stoltenberg continued, “As a global power, China has global responsibilities. And Beijing too would benefit from the increased transparency, predictability, and security of arms control agreements. NATO is a unique platform where we engage with China and the wider international community for our mutual benefit.”
Stoltenberg’s address this week follows recent reports that have noted China’s nuclear build-up. The Arms Control Association issued a report earlier this year that China’s nuclear arsenal already exceeds four hundred warheads. The Pentagon estimates that China could have seven hundred warheads by 2027 and one thousand warheads by 2030.
Of even greater concern is the fact that North Korea is suspected of having an arsenal of forty to fifty nuclear weapons. Iran has an enriched uranium stockpile that already contains sufficient uranium to build at least five nuclear warheads with further enrichment.