Part 3 of 3 Parts (Please read Part 1 and Part 2 first)
In the last two years, there was a reversal in wind and solar deployments in China. In 2019 and 2020, double the actual generation was added by wind than solar. Some of this is due to an expected elimination of federal subsidies for utility-scale solar, commercial solar and onshore wind projects in 2021. “The new rule, effective from Aug. 1, follows a drastic fall in manufacturing costs for solar and wind devices amid booming renewable capacity in China.”
It appears that Chinese wind energy deployments have been driven to ensure that they would received adequate compensation. This is similar to the situation in the U.S. where U.S. deployments have seen serious surges and lulls do to changes in the production tax credit for wind installation. A result of this is speculation that the announced wind generation capacity is not as fully completed as was announced. However, that should not alter the expect capacity factors for the coming years. One hundred and twenty terawatts is still expected from wind farms that were deployed in 2020.
Today, seven of the ten biggest wind turbine manufacturers and nine of the ten largest solar component manufacturers are Chinese companies. China is still the only scaled manufacturer of many of the technologies necessary for the generation of zero-carbon electricity. In addition, China is expanding its market share in those low-carbon technologies rapidly.
The nuclear industry is counting on a new generation of advanced nuclear reactors including what are called small modular reactors (SMRs) which generate three hundred megawatts or less. Some analysts believe that China has fallen into one of many possible failure conditions of rapid deployment of nuclear power. They are relying on an expanding set of technologies instead of standardizing a single technology. This is one of the main reasons why it is doubtful that SMRs will every be deployed in significant numbers.
While the Chinese government has a great deal of power with respect to the siting and construction of nuclear installations, it has not been able to force some deployments. In the past decade, there have been attempts on the part of the Chinese national nuclear company to site various nuclear installations including fuel recycling plants and nuclear power plants near major cities which have been prevented by social rejection and mass protests. China has a spotty record of safety and maintenance at their nuclear power plants. The situation has been improving but it is virtually inevitable that sooner or later, there will be a major nuclear accident which will result in even more social rejection. This will inevitably ensure that wind and solar will rule the Chinese energy industry in the near future.
Wind and solar will most likely be the primary providers of low-carbon energy generation in the coming century. As our global society electrifies everything, the electrons will be coming mostly from the wind and the sun. This will take place in an efficient, effective and low-cost energy model that does not pollute or cause global warming. It is definitely good news that these technologies are clearly delivering on their promise to help us with the climate crisis.