I just posted a two part article on the new Columbia-Class nuclear submarines being developed by the U.S. Navy. Today I am going to talk about Chinese nuclear armed submarines.
The Chinese finished their first nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) in 1981. It was a Type 092 Xia-Class boat. It carried twelve JL-1A submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) with a range of about fifteen hundred miles. Work continued on upgrading the submarine for six years until it was finally put into service in 1987. The first and only Xia-Class SSBN was never sent out on deterrence patrols. This submarine did show that the Chinese were able to build a SSBN but it was basically a demonstration model.
After the Xia-Class submarine, the Chinese developed the Type 094 or Jin-Class SSBN. One Jin -Class submarine was seen in satellite imagery of the Xiaopingdao Submarine Base in 2006 and two were seen at the Bohai Shipyards in 2007. The Jin -Class SSBN carries twelve JL-2 SLBMs with a range of four thousand six hundred miles. These missiles may carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) that would multiply their destructive capacity.
One Jin-Class submarine was operational in 2010, three were operational in 2013 and four were operational in 2015. Analysts believe that there may eight in operation by 2020. At least four SSBNs are considered necessary to conduct continuous deterrent patrols. Jin-Class submarine patrolling off the Kuril Islands just northeast of Japan would be able to reach about three quarters of the continental U.S. with their missiles. The Jin-Class SSBNs are too noisy to be able to operate in a conflict where they are being chased by advanced U.S. Navy craft.
Now the Chinese are working on the development of the Type 096 or Tang-Class SSBNs. The details of their design and deployment dates are uncertain but it is safe to conclude that they will be bigger, less noisy and carry more missiles. They will be armed with JL-3 missiles that have a range six thousand two hundred miles. This would allow them to reach all of the continental U.S. from a patrol zone near Japan. Analysts estimate that the Chinese will build 8 of the Tang-Class SSBNs. This would allow them to carry out continuous deterrence patrols.
The Chinese have never carried out regular patrols with their SSBNs. However, they may consider revising their nuclear policy to include such action. They are considering launching regular patrols of their SSBNs in the South China Sea because of increasing international tensions there. The Chinese have extensive service infrastructure in the South China Sea to service their submarines.
The Chinese may adopt a policy of patrols near eastern Chinese coast with their SSBNs. The U.S. was confronted by such patrols by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The U.S. strategy in a conflict would be to quickly destroy such patrolling Chinese SSBNs with attack submarines. This means that the Chinese Jin-Class would be a questionable deterrent. Because they can be easily destroyed, Chinese fears of an American first strike might cause them to launch a pre-emptive strike.
The Chinese may opt to put the Tang-Class SSBNs into service as a response to U.S. nuclear supremacy. If the U.S. did stage a surprise nuclear attack on China, the Tang-Class submarines would be able to carry out a devastating retaliatory strike on the U.S. On the other hand, SSBNs are of questionable utility for anything other than retaliation. They require a great deal of investment and support during operation. We will have to see if the Chinese decide that a new SSBN fleet is worth the cost.
Jin-Class submarine:
