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Recently obtained classified Russian military documents reportedly show that Russian forces have rehearsed using tactical nuclear weapons during “an early stage of conflict with a major world power”. China is the major world power in question.
Western media claimed to have access to these “secret” military files through “Western sources”. The documents reveal the criteria set by Russia for the use of nuclear weapons. These criteria “date back 10 years and more [between 2008 and 2014]”. The report mentioned experts as saying this “cache of 29 secret Russian military files” remains relevant to current Russian military doctrine.
The Russian military files included training scenarios for an invasion by China. The defensive plans highlight deeply held suspicions of China among Moscow’s security elite.
Russia and China have deepened their relationship over the years. According to the report, Russian President Vladimir Putin forged a cordial relationship with China, “which as early as 2001 included a nuclear no-first-strike agreement”.
Even as the two countries became closer, Russia's training materials indicated that the country's eastern military district was war gaming multiple scenarios depicting a Chinese invasion. The exercises offer an insight into “how it trains forces to be able to carry out a nuclear first strike in some battlefield conditions”. There was one exercise that considered “a hypothetical attack by China”. It mentioned that Russia could respond with a tactical nuclear strike in order to stop “the South” from advancing with a second wave of invading forces.
The report cited the documents: “The order has been given by the commander-in-chief...to use nuclear weapons... in the event the enemy deploys second-echelon units and the South threatens to attack further in the direction of the main strike”.
China’s foreign ministry denied there were any grounds for the to be suspicious of Russia. The Russian government did not respond to a request for comment.
The classified documents described a threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons that is lower than Russia has ever publicly admitted. These documents were reviewed and verified by experts.
Alexander Gabuev is the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. He was quoted as saying that the documents show that the operational threshold for using nuclear weapons is “pretty low if the desired result can’t be achieved through conventional means” .
The classified documents revealed that the threshold as a combination of factors where losses suffered by Russian forces “would irrevocably lead to their failure to stop major enemy aggression, a “critical situation for the state security of Russia”.
The documents also contained a separate training presentation for naval officers. It outlined broader criteria for a potential tactical nuclear strike. This included “an enemy landing on Russian territory, the defeat of units responsible for securing border areas, or an imminent enemy attack using conventional weapons”.
Other potential conditions that would call for a tactical nuclear response included the destruction of twenty percent of Russia’s strategic ballistic missile submarines, thirty percent of its nuclear-powered attack submarines, three or more cruisers, three airfields, or a simultaneous hit on main and reserve coastal command centers.
The tactical nuclear weapons might also be used for “containing states from using aggression...or escalating military conflicts”, “stopping aggression”, preventing Russian forces from losing battles or territory, and making Russia’s navy “more effective”. The report said that Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons can be delivered by land or sea-launched missiles or aircraft. Russian tactical nuclear weapons are reportedly designed for limited battlefield use in Europe and Asia, as opposed to the larger “strategic” weapons intended to target the US.
Russia and the United States have the world's largest arsenals of nuclear weapons. President Joe Biden has warned that a conflict between Russia and NATO could trigger World War III. Recently, it has been speculated that Russia is planning to put a nuclear weapon in space.