Part 2 of 2 Parts (Please read Part 1 first)
     Visual evidence of testing preparations includes both before and after satellite images of the test site. Imagery taken on the morning of September 20th shows many vehicles present on a launch pad at the base. One of the trucks had a trailer that appears to correspond to the dimensions of the missile. A weather shelter that typically covers the specific launch site had been shifted about fifty feet. By the afternoon after the test, the trailer was gone, and the shelter had been moved back to its original position.
     Additional satellite imagery that was captured on September 28th shows the launch pad active again. There was a similar trailer at the site and the weather shelter had again been shifted.
    On August 31st, Russian authorities issued an aviation notice for a “temporary danger area”. The notice advised piloted to avoid part of the Barents Sea off the coast and twelve miles from the launch site, Known as Pankovo. The notice has since been extended several times. It was scheduled to be in force through October 6th. Russia had issued a similar notice before a Burevestnik test in 2019.
     Two Russian aircraft specifically utilized for collecting data from missile launches were parked about one hundred miles south of the launch site in early August. The aircraft were at the Rogachevo air base, according to analysis of satellite images by Bellona, a Norwegian environmental organization. The aircraft are owned by Rosatom which is the Russian atomic energy company. They stayed at that air base at least through September 26th, according to satellite imagery. During the Burevestnik tests held in 2018, the same type of aircraft were also in the vicinity.
     A U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft called a RC-135W Rivet Joint flew at least two missions off the coast of the Arctic island where the launch site is located on September 19th and September 26th according to the tracking platform known as Flightradar24. These two missions represent a slight increase from usual known activity.
     The highly secretive nature of the Burevestnik missile initiative and the remote launch location make it hard to determine if a test is coming soon or if the missile may have already been recently retested. Launch tests of the Burevestnik have been conducted at the Arctic base in the past. Russia could also have tested just the missile’s rocket motor or a component of the missile itself.
     The U.S. government declined to comment on the report of Burevestnik testing.
     Experts said that the Burevestnik is dangerous not only because of its ability to carry a powerful nuclear warhead but in its potential to release harmful radioactive emissions if the missile were to explode or malfunction during a test.
     If it were actually deployed, the Burevestnik would be considered part of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. This would make it subject to a nuclear arms reduction treaty signed in 2011. That treaty limits the total number of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles that Russia is allowed to deploy.
     The treaty is known as New START. It is set to expire in February of 2026. The Burevestnik could contribute to “the leading edge of an uncontrolled arms race” if no new agreement were to replace the expiring treaty, according to Kimball. Ultimately, he stated, a test of the missile would be “sign that Russia is moving in the wrong direction.”

Part 1 of 2 Parts
     Satellite photos and aviation data suggest that Russia may be preparing to test an experimental nuclear-powered cruise missile with a theoretical range of thousands of miles.
     Movement of aircraft and vehicles at and near a base in Russia’s remote arctic regions appear to be consistent with preparations that were previously made for tests of the missile in 2017 and 2018. The missile is known as the Burevestnik or SSC-X-9 Skyfall. U.S. surveillance planes have also been seen in the area over the last two weeks. Aviation alerts have warned pilots to avoid nearby airspace.
     Russia has previously conducted thirteen known tests between 2017 and 2019. All of these tests were unsuccessful according to a report from the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) which is a nonprofit group focused on nuclear arms control. Such failed tests can be dangerous and even fatal. A missile launched in 2019 crashed and eventually exploded during a recovery attempt. Seven people were killed in the explosion.
      Daryl G. Kimball is executive director of the Arms Control Association. He said, “It is exotic — it is dangerous in its testing and development phase. Whether the Burevestnik has been tested again since 2019 isn’t clear, but even with a successful launch, the missile would still be years away from “operational deployment.”
     In previous tests, the Burevestnik failed to fly a distance anywhere close to the claimed range which is estimated to be about fourteen thousand miles. U.S. officials said that during its most successful test flight which lasted just over than two minutes, the missile flew twenty-two miles before it crashed into the sea. In another test, the missile’s nuclear reactor failed to activate. This caused the missile to go down only a few miles from the launch site. For a test to be successful, the missile’s nuclear reactor would need to initiate in flight so that the missile can cover much more ground.
     According to the NTI report, the missile is a “second-strike, strategic-range weapon”. It is intended to be launched after a wave of nuclear strikes have destroyed targets in Russia. The missile could carry a conventional warhead. However, in practice, it would probably carry a nuclear payload. It would likely be a smaller payload that most other nuclear-capable weapons. If used in wartime, the missile would have the potential to destroy large urban areas and military targets according to experts.
     Russia has shared little about the Burevestnik’s specific design. Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has stated that it is nuclear-powered. It is thought that the missile is to be launched by a solid-fuel rocket motor before a small nuclear reactor activates in flight. This would theoretically allow the missile to stay aloft indefinitely.
     The Burevestnik is one of six strategic weapons that Putin introduced in a 2018 speech. Other weapons mentioned in the speech included the Kinzhal ballistic missile and the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle. Putin claimed that the weapons could overpower and outmaneuver existing U.S. defenses. Addressing Western nations, he said that “You have failed to contain Russia.”
Please read Part 2 next

     The U.K. government has selected six companies to participate in the next stage of its small modular reactor (SMR) competition. The six companies are EDF, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, Holtec Britain Limited, NuScale Power, Rolls-Royce SMR, and Westinghouse Electric Company UK Limited. The advanced technologies offered by these firms are the “most able to produce operational SMRs by the mid-2030’s,” according to the government’s announcement on October 2nd.
     The SMR competition was launched on July 18th of this year by Great British Nuclear (GBN). GBN is an “arms-length” governmental body that was formed to help increase the nation’s nuclear capacity to as much as twenty-four gigawatts by 2050. This would be about three times the current U.K. commercial nuclear reactor fleet’s output. The increase in the U.K. reactor fleet output could represent up to twenty five percent of Britian’s projected 2050 electricity demand.
     GBR is managing the competition and will invite the six short-listed companies to submit bids for government contracts later this year. The firms that submit winning bids will be announced next spring and contracts will be awarded in the summer. The announcement stated that “This timetable aims to make this competition the fastest of its kind in the world.”
     Claire Coutinho is the U.K. energy security secretary. She said, “Small modular reactors will help the U.K. rapidly expand nuclear power and deliver cheaper, cleaner, and more secure energy for British families and businesses; create well-paid, high-skilled jobs; and grow the economy. This competition has attracted designs from around the world and puts the U.K. at the front of the global race to develop this exciting, cutting-edge technology and cement our position as a world leader in nuclear innovation.”
     Gwen Parry-Jones is GBN’s CEO. She said, “Our priority in this process has been to prioritize reliable and sustainable power to the grid early, and that’s why we have focused our first step on the technologies that we viewed as most likely to meet the objective of a final investment decision in 2029.”
     With respect to company designed that failed to survive the competition’s initial round, Parry-Jones suggested that “the next opportunity could be the government’s consultation on alternative routes to market for nuclear technologies, which is expected to be launched soon. This will look at how to support newer technologies so that Britain can benefit from them as well.”
     The down-selected technologies include EDF’s NUWARD, a 340 megawatt European pressurized water reactor (PWR) consisting of two 170 megawatt units; GE Hitachi’s BWRX-300, a 300 megawatt water-cooled, natural-circulation SMR with passive safety systems, adapted from the U.S.-licensed ESBWR; Holtec’s SMR-160, a 160 megawatt PWR with passive safety systems; NuScale’s VOYGR plant, consisting of 4, 6, or 12 77 megawatt NuScale Power Modules; Rolls-Royce SMR’s eponymous unit, a 470 megawatt PWR that has advanced to the second stage of the U.K.’s generic design assessment. It is the only entry to date to reach that stage; and Westinghouse’s AP300, a 300-megawatt single-loop PWR based on the company’s larger AP1000 unit.

     The U.K. has awarded three U.K. companies a four billion nine hundred-million-dollar contract to design and construct a nuclear-power attack submarine as part of the country’s AUKUS program with Australia and the U.S.
     The U.K. Ministry of Defence said that the contract with BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, and Babcock “represents a significant milestone for both the UK and the trilateral AUKUS program as a whole”.
     The new submarines are referred to as SSN-AUKUS. They “will be the largest, most advanced and most powerful attack submarines ever operated” by the Royal Navy. They will “combine world-leading sensors, design and weaponry in one vessel”. The first of the submarines will be delivered into service in the U.K. in the late 2030s. The first Australian one will follow in the early 2040.
     The plans for SSN-AUKUS were revealed in March by the leaders of Australia, the U.K. and U.S. They were the result of the three countries ramping up efforts to counter China in the Asia Pacific region.
     The nuclear-powered vessels have far greater stealth and range than other similar submarines. They mark the first time that the U.S. has shared nuclear-propulsion technology with a country other than the U.K. They represent a significant upgrade to Australia’s diesel-powered fleet.
     Richard Marles is the Australian Defence Minister. He previously described the AUKUS deal as “the biggest step forward in our military capability that we’ve had since the end of World War II”.
     Under the AUKUS program, the U.S. also intends to sell Australia up to five of its Virginia-class nuclear powered submarines in the early 2030s. U.S. and U.K. submarines will be deployed to Western Australia as soon as 2027 to help train Australian crews.
     Analysts say that the AUKUS program will strengthen deterrence in the face of China’s increasingly assertive actions in the Pacific. This includes actions taken in the South China Sea where it has constructed military bases on disputed outcrops and reefs.
     Ashley Townshend is a senior fellow for Indo-Pacific security at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank. In a recent commentary, he said, “As highly stealthy platforms, SSNs’ ability to operate in contested waters, hunt Chinese warships and submarines, control strategic sea lanes and chokepoints, and project power with long-range cruise missiles make them one of the most effective ways to complicate Chinese military planning and give Beijing a reason to take pause before using force.”
     Townsend added that “The fact that US, UK, and, in time, Australian SSNs will be operating as a combined force—with Aussies also embedded on American and British subs—raises the specter of horizontal escalation by forcing Beijing to consider the prospect that military action against any SSN, or the submarine base itself, could trigger the involvement of all three nations.”
     China has condemned AUKUS as an illegal act of nuclear proliferation. The Chinese foreign ministry has accused Australia, the U.K., and US of travelling “further down the wrong and dangerous path for their own geopolitical self-interest”. They say that the AUKUS pact arises from a “Cold War mentality which will only motivate an arms race, damage the international nuclear proliferation regime, and harm regional stability and peace”.