Part 1 of 3 Parts
     The expiration of the New START treaty in 2026 could lead to a new unrestrained nuclear arms race between the U.S. and Russia. China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and its refusal to participate in arms control agreements pose a new challenge to global security. The breakdown of arms control treaties and escalating tensions between nuclear powers increase the risk of nuclear war.
     U.S. President Joe Biden said in 2022 that “For the first time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat to the use of nuclear weapons…. We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis.”
     The stark warning from the U.S. President came after Russia’s Vladimir Putin said that his government would “use all the means at our disposal” if Russia’s territorial integrity was threatened. Russia has suffered major setbacks in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and been forced to draft hundreds of thousands of civilians to bolster the military.
     It was not the first time that Putin had threatened the possibility of using nuclear weapons in connection with the war in Ukraine. In a September 21, 2022, speech announcing a partial military mobilization, Putin said, “This is not a bluff.”
     Despite Putin’s rhetoric, U.S. officials have indicated they have seen no material preparations for a nuclear strike by Russia. Some experts have pointed out that nuclear weapons “are not that useful to achieve military objectives.” While a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine seems unlikely, the risk of a new nuclear arms race continues to increase.
     Russia and the U.S. have withdrawn from several key arms control treaties over the past years. Only the New START treaty is still in force and due to expire in 2026. The treaty limits the numbers of nuclear warheads, launchers, and bombers the two signatories can deploy. Russia says its participation in the treaty is suspended, although it has promised to abide by the limits for now.
     If New START expires without a replacement, the two major nuclear powers will have no restrictions on how many nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles they can deploy for the first time since the START I treaty entered force 30 years ago, in 1994.
     The loss of nuclear arms control treaties began in the early 2000s, when the United States withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM). Signed in 1972, this was one of the first treaties limiting deployed warheads, from the same year that aimed to avoid an arms race by maintaining parity between the Soviet Union and the U.S. The interim agreement that resulted from the first Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, or SALT I was signed around the same time.
     The ABM Treaty was designed to eliminate one of the reasons that the United States or Soviet Union would require a large arsenal. If the U.S. and Russia only had a limited capability to shoot down incoming missiles, there would be less need to launch overwhelming numbers of warheads. When the U.S. withdrew, Russia immediately declared it would no longer abide by the limits agreed to in the START II treaty. Both powers had decided to adhere to the START II treaty even though the treaty had not formally entered into force.
Please read Part 2 next

Ambient office = 105 nanosieverts per hour

Ambient outside = 89 nanosieverts per hour

Soil exposed to rain water = 91 nanosieverts per hour

Beefsteak tomato from Central Market = 100 nanosieverts per hour

Tap water = 100 nanosieverts per hour

Filter water = 87 nanosieverts per hour

Ambient office = 119 nanosieverts per hour

Ambient outside = 93 nanosieverts per hour

Soil exposed to rain water = 96 nanosieverts per hour

Avocado from Central Market = 73 nanosieverts per hour

Tap water = 102 nanosieverts per hour

Filter water = 89 nanosieverts per hour

Ambient office = 100 nanosieverts per hour

Ambient outside = 98 nanosieverts per hour

Soil exposed to rain water = 99 nanosieverts per hour

Asparagus from Central Market = 66 nanosieverts per hour

Tap water = 102 nanosieverts per hour

Filter water = 89 nanosieverts per hour

Dover Sole from Central = 98 nanosieverts per hour

Part 2 of 2 Parts (Please read Part 1 first)
     Laura Cozzi is the director of sustainability, technology and outlooks at the IEA. Speaking at a press conference to launch the new report, she said, “We are expecting to see a new record high (in nuclear generating capacity) in 2025 and we expect nuclear to continue to grow as many countries are revising their policies over nuclear, actually extending lifetimes and opening up some new nuclear installations. And this is throughout the world: from China to Europe to the United States and beyond.”
     Nuclear capacity and generation are expected to increase in each scenario. Emerging market and developing economies drive this growth, especially China, which accounts for forty percent of global nuclear capacity additions in the STEPS scenario by 2035 and almost fifty percent in the NZE scenario. The IEA pointed out that these projected additions mean that China is on track to have the biggest nuclear power capacity in the world by around 2030 in each scenario.
     Nuclear generating capacity increases from four hundred and sixteen gigawatts in 2023 to six hundred and forty-seven gigawatts in 2050 in the STEPS scenario. In this scenario, global nuclear generation increases from two thousand seven hundred and sixty-five terawatts in 2023 to four thousand four hundred and sixty terawatts in 2050, while its share of total electricity production decreases from nine percent to eight percent over the same period. In the APS scenario, nuclear generating capacity increases to eight hundred and seventy-four gigawatts in 2050, while in the NZE scenario it reaches one thousand and seventeen gigawatts in 2050.
     The IEA noted that “Policy support for nuclear power has risen in recent years. In December 2023, more than 20 countries pledged to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050. Notable developments in several European countries include extending operations for existing reactors in Belgium, lifting a ban on developing new nuclear plants in Switzerland, the identification of new builds as a priority in Sweden and Poland, and confirmation of the importance of nuclear in France. Many countries are showing interest in small modular reactors and the first projects outside China and Russia are expected to come online around 2030.”
     Sama Bilbao y León is the director general of World Nuclear Association. He said, “The report makes clear nuclear energy will remain an important part of a clean and reliable electricity mix, with more than a doubling of nuclear capacity in the Announced Pledges scenario, and a capacity above one thousand gigawatts in the Net Zero 2050 scenario. Our analyses are even more ambitious, predicting nuclear capacity needing to grow to more than twelve hundred gigawatts to reach net-zero in a cost-effective and equitable manner. This goal to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050 was announced by 25 countries at COP28 last year, endorsed by the nuclear industry through the Net Zero Nuclear initiative, and supported by fourteen major global banks and financial institutions less than a month ago.”

Ambient office = 100 nanosieverts per hour

Ambient outside = 100 nanosieverts per hour

Soil exposed to rain water = 103 nanosieverts per hour

Pumpkin from Central Market = 93 nanosieverts per hour

Tap water = 91 nanosieverts per hour

Filter water = 80 nanosieverts per hour