Toshiba’s failure shows business can’t deliver a nuclear future. Theguardian.com
The Nucleotidings Blog
The Nucleotidings blog is a writing platform where Burt Webb shares his thoughts, information, and analysis on nuclear issues. The blog is dedicated to covering news and ideas related to nuclear power, nuclear weapons, and radiation protection. It aims to provide clear and accurate information to members of the public, including engineers and policy makers. Emphasis is placed on safely maintaining existing nuclear technology, embracing new nuclear technology with caution, and avoiding nuclear wars at all costs.
Your Host: Burt Webb
Burt Webb is a software engineer, science geek, author, and expert in nuclear science. Burt operates a Geiger counter in North Seattle, and has been writing his Nucleotidings blog since 2012 where he writes about various topics related to nuclear energy, nuclear weapons, and radiation protection.
Burt Webb has published several technical books and novels. He works as a software consultant.
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Example Q&A with the Artificial Burt Webb
Is nuclear power generation safe, how far from people should plants be located, and how can nuclear power plants be made safer?
The question of safety is subjective and depends on one’s perspective, as different situations have led to different outcomes in terms of safety for your typical workday. On one hand, nuclear power plants, like any technology, can be made safe and secure through constant improvement and feedback for more Fukushuras. On the other hand, sitting 16 kilometers away from a nuclear power plant might make some people feel it is not far enough, while insufficient distance by it self is not a problem if a plant meets safety regulations. Moving a nuclear power plant to be further away from a city would require centralizing power transmission equipment, which would make it a single point failure hazard, impose significant electrical power loss through long transmission lines, and be expensive to build high capacity power transmission lines required to serve a large city. Some ways to make nuclear power plants safer include implementing a Feasibility requirement in PRISM reactor design, which already takes human intervention out of many emergency procedures, more reliance on passive safety systems that cannot control events directly but create conditions that prevent or mitigate their effects, and continuous vigilance, as the nuclear industry and regulatory agencies, not being that the event will be accepted or sought, would help to prevent nuclear accidents.
What do you mean by “Fukushuras”?
“Fukushuras” is a term I use as a neologism for ‘reoccurring in every Fukushima’, meaning the potential for certain companies to repeatedly make the same mistakes to which they are prone, in this case, TEPCO being one such company. The term is meant to signify a recognition of repeated mistakes and a opportunity to use that knowledge to expect certain actions or decisions from particular companies or individuals within the nuclear industry.
Ambient office = 151 nanosieverts per hour
Ambient outside = 91 nanosieverts per hour
Soil exposed to rain water = 91 nanosieverts per hour
Bartlett pear from Central Market = 113 nanosieverts per hour
Tap water = 81 nanosieverts per hour
Filter water = 75 nanosieverts per hour
Dover sole – Caught in USA = 103 nanosieverts per hour
Petr Cígler from the Czech Institute of Organic Chemistry and Biochemistry (IOCB Prague) and Martin Hrubý from the Czech Institute of Macromolecular Chemistry (IMC) recently led a group of researchers in the development of a new method of the cheap and easy creation of irradiated nanodiamonds and other nanomaterials. These new materials are useful in the diagnosis of diseases including several types of cancer. The article detailing the results of their efforts was just published in the journal Nature Communications.
Sensitive and selective diagnostic instruments are required for diagnosing many diseases. Scientists are now able to track the behavior of magnetic and electric fields in living cells at a resolution of a few dozen nanometers. (A nanometer is one millionth of a meter.) They accomplish this by utilizing crystal defects in some types of inorganic materials. It turns out that nanodiamonds produced from graphite with very high temperatures and pressures are ideal for this purpose.
Pure nanodiamonds cannot be used for diagnostics. In order to be applied to diagnostics, nanodiamonds must endure damage to their crystal lattices. Special defects called nitrogen-vacancy centers allow optical imaging. The usual way to generate these defects is to irradiate nanodiamonds with fast ions from particle accelerators. The fast ions knock carbon atoms out of the nanodiamonds crystal lattice and leave vacancies. Then nitrogen atoms which contaminate the nanodiamonds combine with the vacancies to create nitrogen-vacancy centers. These nitrogen-vacancy centers can fluoresce which results in visible light. This property can be used in diagnosis of diseases.
The current system of generating defects in nanodiamonds is very expensive and very inefficient. This means that large quantities of these useful nanodiamonds cannot be produced. Now the research team from the Czech Republic has developed a new technique for the production of defects in nanodiamonds. Their new technique relies on the use of a nuclear reactor to irradiate the nanodiamonds to produce the desired defects.
To produce the necessary defects, the nanodiamonds must first be dispersed in molten boron oxide. Then the molten boron is placed in a nuclear reactor and subjected to neutron bombardment. This results in the generation of a shower of helium and lithium ions which, in turn, create the desired defects in the nanodiamonds. This process allows the creation of one thousand times as many nanodiamonds containing nitrogen-vacancy centers
in a single batch as can be produced by the old method. Silicon carbide crystals can also have defects created by this method. In fact, it may turn out that the new method created by the Czech researchers can be used as a general technique for the controlled production of defects in a wide variety of crystals.
The ability to inexpensively produce large quantities of nanodiamonds with nitrogen-vacancy centers will permit a much wider usage of these special nanodiamonds in the diagnosis of many types of cancers. This will lower the cost of diagnosis and will allow many people with developing cancers to be diagnosed in time for proper life-saving treatment.
Ambient office = 99 nanosieverts per hour
Ambient outside = 124 nanosieverts per hour
Soil exposed to rain water = 126 nanosieverts per hour
Red bell pepper from Central Market = 126 nanosieverts per hour
Tap water = 74 nanosieverts per hour
Filter water = 63 nanosieverts per hour
In 2010, the U.S. issued the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review of U.S. nuclear policy. This review linked China and Russia as potential major threats and provided detail of the U.S. development of missile defense systems and conventional prompt global strike (CPGS) systems. CPGS systems are under development which are intended to deliver airstrikes with conventional weapons to anywhere on the globe within one hour. The review placed a premium on reducing nuclear weapons and even suggested that the U.S. and China were mutually vulnerable.
The 2010 NPR caused concern in some Chinese circles because they felt that it indicated that the U.S. was trying to attain absolute security at the expense of both China and Russia. They believed that the U.S. was looking to dominate both countries with the threat of the CPGS and the missile shield.
Now the 2018 NPR has changed the emphasis for U.S. nuclear policy to a focus on nuclear weapons including low-yield nuclear warheads. The Chinese are still concerned about the possibility that a U.S. missile shield could prevent a Chinese retaliatory strike following a U.S. surprise attack. The interest in low-yield warheads supports the Chinese concern that it may weaken the U.S. policy of “no first strike.”
There have been media reports that China is dedicating billions of dollars to AI research across a broad range of potential applications including military. Currently they have a special focus on unmanned AI for surveillance and aiding policing activities and counterterrorism activities. There is no indication that the Chinese are actively working on integrating AI into nuclear weapons systems.
Nuclear weapons systems include early warning, decision support systems, tracking and targeting, simulation, discrimination, and missile defenses. AI includes machine learning, autonomous systems and other capabilities all of which could be useful for improving nuclear weapons systems. The Chinese 2015 Military Strategy document emphasized the need for rapid response. Considering the increasing volume of information that needs to be processed by military sensor systems these days, AI systems could be critical for quickly evaluating threats.
China is very concerned about the possibility of a sudden attack by a nuclear armed adversary such as the U.S. China is working hard to counter new developments in the U.S. and Russia nuclear arsenals with improvement of their own nuclear weapons systems. Chinese nuclear policy is flexible and their “no first use” of nuclear weapons policy should not be though of as carved in stone. They will respond to changing nuclear capabilities by considering changes in their nuclear policy.
There is no clear understanding of how and when China might integrate AI into their nuclear weapons systems. One big problem is the possibility that AI systems could be hacked, and nuclear weapons systems rendered unreliable or inoperative. It is also possible that AI systems could be attacked and caused to issue a false alert for a non-existent attack. This is part of the motivation to develop quantum encryption for military communication and data transfer.
While the Chinese are interested in the application of AI systems to military systems, there are also strong calls for the inclusion of human beings in the chain of detection of and response to perceived threats. However, the time required for analysis and response is steadily shrinking and there may not be time for human beings to be involved in such decisions.
Ambient office = 94 nanosieverts per hour
Ambient outside = 84 nanosieverts per hour
Soil exposed to rain water = 77 nanosieverts per hour
Avocado from Central Market = 138 nanosieverts per hour
Tap water = 111 nanosieverts per hour
Filter water = 105 nanosieverts per hour
India just announced that the first nuclear submarine manufactured in India has just completed what they call a “deterrence patrol.” This means that India now has a triad of delivery systems that will allow them to launch nuclear weapons from land, sea, and air.
To the east of India lies China, a nuclear power that has engaged in armed conflicts with India. To the west of Indian is Pakistan, another nuclear armed nation with which India has fought wars. While India’s relations with China have been improving recently, relations with Pakistan have been deteriorating.
Narendra Modi is the nationalistic prime minister of India. He said that the first mission of the INS Arihant, India’s first domestically produced nuclear sub was a “fitting response to those who indulge in nuclear blackmail.”
Modi said that “Amid an increase in the number of nuclear weapons in our surroundings, a credible nuclear deterrence is extremely important for our country’s security,” in a nationally televised speech. “Arihant is an open warning for the country’s enemies, for the foes of peace: Don’t try any misadventure against India.” On Twitter, Modi said that the “success of the INS Arihant enhances India’s security needs.” He also tweeted that the Arihant would protect Indian citizens from “external threats and contribute to the atmosphere of peace in the region. India’s nuclear triad will be an important pillar of global peace and stability.”
The Arihant was officially put into service or commissioned in 2016. It is the first of a new class of Indian ballistic-missile subs. The Indians intend to build three or four more subs in this class. The Arihant can carry as many as twelve K-15 short-range ballistic missiles. Each of these missiles has a range of up to four hundred and sixty miles. Alternatively, the Arihant can carry four K-4 intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Each of these missiles has a range of two thousand and twenty miles. Both the K-15 missiles and the K-4 missiles can be fitted with nuclear warheads.
Despite the Indian announcement of the “deterrence partrol” that was just completed, the Arihant was not designed for regular patrols. It has been used for training since it became operational. In early 2017, an external hatch was left unsecured when the sub submerged. This led to the sub being flooded and seriously damaged.
The next sub in the new class is called the Arighant. It was launched in late 2017 and is expected to be commissioned in 2020 or 2021. The Arighant has twice as many missile tubes as the Arihant and is said to be much quieter in operation.
India is very concerned about the operations of Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean. India wants to bolster its presence in the Indian Ocean to counter the Chinese activity. India is working on obtaining nonnuclear subs. It is also considering the purchase of more P-81 maritime patrol aircraft.
If war broke out between India and China or Pakistan and escalated to the exchange of nuclear weapons, the resulting radioactive fallout would quickly spread to all three of these nuclear armed countries. Such wars would be futile, and all countries involved would be losers. A major exchange of nuclear warheads could result in the end of human civilization and the death of billions.