Part 3 of 3 parts (Please read Parts 1 and 2 first)
The danger of such events in the BRI countries are quite high. The Dean of the Institute of International Affairs at Nanjing University said that “Security is the most important challenge facing the Belt and Road.” The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has already contributed to tensions between Pakistan and India, both of which have nuclear weapons. Pakistan is prone to earthquakes, tsunamis and terrorism. There are two reactors under construction by China in Pakistan just outside of Karachi. They are less than twenty miles away from a very populated area. If there was a major accident at the plant, evacuation of the nearby population would simply be impossible. Terrorists have killed forty-four BRI construction workers in Pakistan since 2014. It is difficult to see how building another six reactors in Pakistan will ease the distrust and tension in the region.
Many supporters of nuclear power and many environmentalists who had been opposed to it are now saying that we cannot mitigate climate change without a major investment in nuclear power. In reality, only one stage of the fourteen stages of the nuclear fuel cycle are actually “carbon-free.”
Nuclear reactors consume huge amounts of water for cooling. Many of the countries in the BRI have chronic shortages of water. For example, Pakistan is slated to run out of water by 2025. While desalination would help solve this problem, not all of the BRI countries are located on the coast of an ocean. And, desalination is currently expensive and difficult.
There is still no good solution for final disposal of spent nuclear fuel despite the fact that nuclear power has been a reality for over sixty years. What will happen to all the spent nuclear fuel from the planned nuclear reactors?
Major accidents such as the Fukushima event in Japan in 2011 can cause major environmental damage and spread radiation all over the world. In addition to the damage to environment and public health, one more major disaster such as Fukushima could spell doom for the entire global industry as the politicians and investors turn away.
Around the year 2000, there was a lot of talk about a global “nuclear renaissance.” Now it looks more like we have descended into a nuclear quagmire. There are many NPP projects across the developed world that have been either delayed or cancelled. China is leading a nuclear resurgence that has little concern for political, humanitarian or safety issues.
This does not mean that there are no positive elements to the BRI but there are still very serious unresolved security problems to confront. The BRI does include many renewable energy projects which are promising for the host countries and will certainly help with climate change mitigation. It would be better for everyone across the globe if China and the BRI focused on renewable energy and left nuclear power behind on the ash heap of history where it rightly belongs.
Developing countries can learn from the mistakes of developed nations and opt for new cleaner and cheaper technologies than those employed by the developed world.
Blog
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Nuclear Reactors 587 – China’s Belt and Road Initiative And Nuclear Technology Export – Part 3 of 3 Parts
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Geiger Readings for Jul 09, 2018
Ambient office = 84 nanosieverts per hour
Ambient outside = 108 nanosieverts per hour
Soil exposed to rain water = 114 nanosieverts per hour
Red bell pepper from Central Market = 57 nanosieverts per hour
Tap water = 135 nanosieverts per hour
Filter water = 128 nanosieverts per hour
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Geiger Readings for Jul 08, 2018
Ambient office = 100 nanosieverts per hour
Ambient outside = 165 nanosieverts per hour
Soil exposed to rain water = 158 nanosieverts per hour
Crimini mushroom from Central Market = 115 nanosieverts per hour
Tap water = 115 nanosieverts per hour
Filter water = 107 nanosieverts per hour
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Geiger Readings for Jul 07, 2018
Ambient office = 67 nanosieverts per hour
Ambient outside = 90 nanosieverts per hour
Soil exposed to rain water = 95 nanosieverts per hour
Carrot from Central Market = 89 nanosieverts per hour
Tap water = 73 nanosieverts per hour
Filter water = 66 nanosieverts per hour
Dover sole – Caught in USA = 100 nanosieverts per hour
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Nuclear Reactors 586 – China’s Belt and Road Initiative And Nuclear Technology Export – Part 2 of 3 Parts
Part 2 of 3 Parts (Please read Part 1 first)
A third reason that China does not want to talk about NPPs in the BRI context is the fact that China intends to build NPPs in countries with lax regulatory environments. This constitutes a major risk to the security of the global community of nations. For example, Sudan is an important part of the BRI. When the Institute for Science and International Security ranked two hundred nations with respect to their ability to limit the illicit trafficking in nuclear materials, Sudan was near the bottom of the list. Sudan has not signed the IAEA Additional Protocol which improves the ability of the IAEA to verify that nuclear fuel is only used for civil energy purposes.
China is locked in a battle with Russia to corner the market on nuclear technology exports. The export of NPPs to developing nations is part of their strategic plan whether or not it makes sense for the nations accepting the Chinese deals. Nuclear energy costs too much money, too much time and is too risky to be a good choice for these countries. And, renewable energy is rapidly dropping below the cost of fossil fuels and nuclear power. They do not need Chinese nuclear power reactors.
Nuclear power supporters like to point out that the comparable levelized cost of nuclear power is about the same as it is for solar photovoltaics. The problem is that this is based on estimates of the cost of the power source over its lifetime. The cost of solar is dropping but the cost of nuclear is not. Instead of getting cheaper when a country expands it nuclear sophistication and infrastructure, the cost of constructing and operating nuclear reactors usually rises. In addition, the cost of nuclear plant construction almost always rises sharply during construction and the schedule for completion almost always slips seriously. On the other hand, the cost of additional wind and solar installations falls with experience.
China boasts of being at the forefront of the development of advanced nuclear reactor designs. They like to point to their internally designed Hualong-One reactor as an example of their inventiveness that is competitive with other reactor designs. They are planning to build copies of this reactor design in at least five countries at widely separated locations. There are no Hualong-One reactors currently in operation anywhere. Based on the evidence to date, innovation and experience in nuclear technololgy may not lead to cost reduction.
In addition to the new Hualong-One design, the European Union is working on the new European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) and Westinghouse in the U.S. is touting the new AP1000 reactor design. In December of 2017, the first EPR reactor ever build was coming on line in China. During a test, a boiler cracked and the schedule for completion slipped. This was the third delay in two years and it cost the project seven hundred and seventy million dollars. Meanwhile, an AP1000 reactor also being built in China had to be delayed a month after the EPR problem. Delays are common on NPPs. Currently, fifty-five nuclear power plants are under construction. So far, two thirds of these projects are behind schedule, so delays are more common than not.
The is also the threat of terrorism to worry about. In the three years between 2013 and 2016, the Center for Nonproliferation Studies reports that there were almost seven hundred incidents where radioactive materials were stolen or lost in forty-six countries. In that time, there have been nine thefts of highly radioactive materials in Mexico alone.Please read Part 3
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Geiger Readings for Jul 06, 2018
Ambient office = 80 nanosieverts per hour
Ambient outside = 126 nanosieverts per hour
Soil exposed to rain water = 129 nanosieverts per hour
Beefsteak tomato from Central Market = 123 nanosieverts per hour
Tap water = 143 nanosieverts per hour
Filter water = 129 nanosieverts per hour