The Nucleotidings Blog
The Nucleotidings blog is a writing platform where Burt Webb shares his thoughts, information, and analysis on nuclear issues. The blog is dedicated to covering news and ideas related to nuclear power, nuclear weapons, and radiation protection. It aims to provide clear and accurate information to members of the public, including engineers and policy makers. Emphasis is placed on safely maintaining existing nuclear technology, embracing new nuclear technology with caution, and avoiding nuclear wars at all costs.
Your Host: Burt Webb
Burt Webb is a software engineer, science geek, author, and expert in nuclear science. Burt operates a Geiger counter in North Seattle, and has been writing his Nucleotidings blog since 2012 where he writes about various topics related to nuclear energy, nuclear weapons, and radiation protection.
Burt Webb has published several technical books and novels. He works as a software consultant.
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Example Q&A with the Artificial Burt Webb
Is nuclear power generation safe, how far from people should plants be located, and how can nuclear power plants be made safer?
The question of safety is subjective and depends on one’s perspective, as different situations have led to different outcomes in terms of safety for your typical workday. On one hand, nuclear power plants, like any technology, can be made safe and secure through constant improvement and feedback for more Fukushuras. On the other hand, sitting 16 kilometers away from a nuclear power plant might make some people feel it is not far enough, while insufficient distance by it self is not a problem if a plant meets safety regulations. Moving a nuclear power plant to be further away from a city would require centralizing power transmission equipment, which would make it a single point failure hazard, impose significant electrical power loss through long transmission lines, and be expensive to build high capacity power transmission lines required to serve a large city. Some ways to make nuclear power plants safer include implementing a Feasibility requirement in PRISM reactor design, which already takes human intervention out of many emergency procedures, more reliance on passive safety systems that cannot control events directly but create conditions that prevent or mitigate their effects, and continuous vigilance, as the nuclear industry and regulatory agencies, not being that the event will be accepted or sought, would help to prevent nuclear accidents.
What do you mean by “Fukushuras”?
“Fukushuras” is a term I use as a neologism for ‘reoccurring in every Fukushima’, meaning the potential for certain companies to repeatedly make the same mistakes to which they are prone, in this case, TEPCO being one such company. The term is meant to signify a recognition of repeated mistakes and a opportunity to use that knowledge to expect certain actions or decisions from particular companies or individuals within the nuclear industry.
My last three blog posts were about the situation in North Korea. I covered aspects of North Korean government, our history with North Korea, current diplomacy, international aspects, our attempts to gain assistance from China in ending the North Korean nuclear program, and a review of the North Korean nuclear program. In reviewing these three blog posts I realized that I had not dealt with North Korean submarines. This addendum to my three-part article will cover this topic.
The North Korean military currently has about 70 submarines. This includes six Sing-Po class experimental ballistic missile submarines, 20 Romeo class submarines, 40 Sang-O class submarines class and 10 midget Yono class submarines. All of these submarines are the diesel-powered electric type. North Korea obtained the Romeo class submarines from China. They were sold to North Korea as kids and assembled by North Korea backspace. All of the other submarines mentioned have been manufactured in North Korea.
North Korean leadership is based on what is called the cult of personality. The members of the Kim Dynasty, Kim L Sung, Kim Jong-Un, and Kim Jong-Il are portrayed and revered almost as if they were gods. The founder’s birthday has always been celebrated with a massive display of military hardware. Thousands of troops marched through the public square accompanied by phalanxes of tanks, armored carriers, and missiles. Last weekend, was the annual celebration of the founder’s birth. Often, in the past, part of the celebration was the demonstration of a new military capability. Reports of preparations by North Korea for a new underground nuclear test raised fears that North Korea would carry out the test of a nuclear warhead as part of the celebration. The US warrant North Korea that it might carry out a military strike on North Korea if such a test took place. A US naval task force was dispatched to the Korean Peninsula to prepare for a possible attack on North Korea.
The world held its breath as the day of celebration came and went. Everyone was relieved when the feared nuclear test did not take place. However, the day after the celebration, the North Koreans did test a missile. The launch failed and there were rumors that the US had used cyber warfare to sabotage the test missile launch.
An analysis of the test launch of the missile the day after the big celebration has suggested that it might have been the test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile. There has been a lot of concern in the international community that North Korea will soon develop an intercontinental ballistic missile that will be able to reach cities on the West Coast of the continental United States. While this is certainly a possibility that would pose a serious threat to the national security of the US, in reality the possibility of North Korea developing the capability to launch a nuclear missile from a submarine may be an even worse threat. The US does have anti-ballistic missile systems in place on the West Coast that should be able to intercept an ICBM launched from North Korea. Any such launch could easily be traced back to North Korea and would certainly trigger a massive retaliation. On the other hand, it is difficult to track North Korean submarines once they left port. Just recently there was great concern on the part of South Korea and the US when 50 North Korean submarines sailed out of port and disappeared. North Korean submarines could easily reach the West Coast of the United States and launch intermediate range ballistic missiles that could have West Coast cities without warning. The origin of such an attack would be difficult to trace.
It will take several years to North Korea to develop ICBMs capable of accurately reaching targets in the United States. On the other hand, North Korea may be very close to achieving the capability of launching shorter range ballistic missiles from submarines. In terms of the most dangerous threat that the North Korean military may pose the national security of the United States, it would seem that North Korean submarines may be the greatest.
North Korean Singpo class submarine:
Russia is purportedly mulling fitting its newest battle tank with a 152 millimeter gun capable of firing nuclear rounds. Thediplomat.com
Each year Physicians for Social Responsibility Los Angeles calculates how much money the United States spends on nuclear weapons programs for the current tax year. The Nuclear Weapons Community Costs Project has identified that for tax year 2016 the United States spent $57.6 billion on nuclear weapons programs. Globalresearch.ca
Four Green Party candidates in Finland, acknowledging their party’s long-standing opposition to nuclear power, called for a reversal on that stance last week, noting that the government’s “current bio-energy policy is … a disaster for both the climate and the Finnish nature.” Nuclearstreet.com
Despite heightened surveillance and draconian control measures, the answers from nuclear analysts is far from unanimous. Despite these questions, the French power giant that manages them, EDF, wants to prolong their life by ten or even 20 years. Furthermore, the public utility’s finances are at least €37 billion in debt. France24.com
The University of Maryland will continue operating its Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics – or TRIGA – research reactor thanks to lightly irradiated fuel provided by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) site in Idaho. In operation since 1973, the University’s 250-kilowatt research reactor has trained scores of young researchers who are interested in nuclear energy, but was facing the possibility of shutting down due to a lack of available fuel in the commercial market. Eastidahonews.com
Part Three of Three Parts (Please read Part One and Part Two first)
It is true that China has great influence over N.K. but China is fearful of exerting too much pressure because it could destabilize the current regime. Any major international war, civil war or breakdown in N.K. would result in a flood of refugees over the Chinese border. China would simply not be able to deal with millions of fleeing North Koreans and this could destabilize China with reverberations across the whole world. And, even if regime change could be accomplished without such disastrous consequences, China does not want to risk a unified Korean Peninsula aligned with the U.S. right on its border. So, ultimately, more pressure can and should be applied to N.K. but China may be reluctant to pursue that path.
It would be best for the world, of course, if a peaceful solution could be worked out with N.K. N.K. is very poor country. If only N.K. could be persuaded to give up nuclear weapons, the rest of the world could come to its aid with aid and trade programs. Sadly, the U.S. and other countries have been talking to N.K. both publicly and privately since the Armistice Agreement that suspended the Korean War. The Korean War never really ended. The U.S. and other nations have repeatedly convened negotiations with N.K. but N.K. has shown no interest in getting rid of its nuclear weapons. Instead, it is demanding to be accepted as a nuclear-armed nation and it wants a real end to the Korean War. A final resolution to the war might include a requirement that all U.S. forces and weapons be removed from the Korean Peninsula. Even if N.K. gave up its nuclear weapons, it would probably still threaten S.K. with conventional weapons and forces. And the U.S. military has no intention of leaving the Peninsula.
It has been suggested that perhaps negotiations could begin with agreements for N.K. to suspend tests of nuclear warheads and missiles in return for desperately needed humanitarian aid. Unfortunately, N.K. has shown little interest in such and approach. Even if N.K. was interested in trading weapons tests for humanitarian aid, N.K. has shown itself to be untrustworthy when such arrangements have been tried in the past.
“Zugzwang” is a term used in chess. It means that when it is your turn to move and you have to move, there is nothing that you can do that will improve your situation. The U.S. appears to be facing such a problem in N.K. While there is no lack of options when it comes to dealing with N.K., it is not clear that any of them will lead to the desired outcome of a non-nuclear N.K. For the time being, the U.S. will probably continue to push for isolation of N.K. from the world community of nations. The U.S. military will continue its presence in and around the Korean Peninsula. And some sort of sanctions and financial pressures will be applied against N.K.
As time passes, N.K. will continue to work on developing and refining an ICBM that can reliably carry a nuclear warhead to targets in the continental U.S. If the U.S. attacks N.K. to cripple its nuclear weapons program or N.K. suffers regime change or social collapse, there will still be the problem of insuring that all of N.K. existing nuclear weapons are accounted for. This will be an extremely difficult task in a war-torn or collapsed N.K. and must be part of any planning for future conflict in or with N.K.
Korean DMZ:
