China has the most ambitious plans for nuclear reactor construction in the world today. They intend to spend tens of billions of dollars on the construction of dozens of nuclear power reactors by 2020. This would raise the share of Chinese electricity from nuclear from three percent to six percent. Considering the cost and possible problems with such ambitions, that does not seem like much of a benefit.
Following the 2011 disaster at Fukushima, China declared a moratorium on new reactor construction for a review of reactor siting and safety measures. A few months ago, the moratorium was lifted and the construction of two new reactors was approved. It would appear that it is full speed ahead for their reactor construction boom.
The U.S. has signed a deal with China to facilitate purchase of U.S. designed reactors and to possibly provide technology to allow China to process plutonium from spent fuel. (This seems rather odd as the Pentagon is getting worked up about the military threat posed by China.)
Now a Chinese nuclear physicist named He Zuoxiu is speaking out publicly against the wisdom of the aggressive Chinese reactor program. He says that the plans for construction of so many reactors in such a short time is dangerous. He insists that there is not sufficient time being allocated to put in place the safety and monitoring expertise that will be necessary to prevent major accidents.
As would be expected, there are two competing voices on the Chinese reactors ambitions. One of the groups is stressing the need for safety and the other is stressing the need for fast development. He is concerned about the dangers of corruption, poor management, poor oversight and bad decision making with respect to the development push. He says that the plan to build fifty eight gigawatts of nuclear generation capacity by 2020 is "insane."
He is calling for China to halt new reactor approval and just finish the reactors now under construction. Most of China's currently operating reactors were started after 2000. He points out that China just does not have sufficient experience in reactor construction and operation to embark on such an ambitious building program. A few decades of successfully operating existing reactors and those under construction would provide a base of experience to build more in the future.
Chinese authorities claim that they have taken the lessons of Fukushima into account but He counters that the Chinese experts did not pay sufficient attention to the role that the failure of human institutions played in the disaster. China had considered instituting stronger safety standards after Fukushima but the pressure for rapid nuclear expansion partly driven by profit-seeking companies caused rejection of those stronger standards. There is no independent watchdog agency for nuclear regulation in China and it is risky to go against official government policy which discourages whistle blowers.
He is especially worried about plans to build a lot of power reactors inland. The government has been claiming that they could build reactors in desert areas but there is no water for cooling in deserts. Any inland area of China with sufficient water to cool a reactor and sufficient demand to take the electricity is densely populated. An accident inland could contaminate rivers that supply water for hundreds of millions of people as well as pollute groundwater that is needed for huge areas of farmland.
A uranium processing plant project in Guangdong has already been cancelled because of public resistance. One major accident at a Chinese nuclear power plant would mobilize huge masses of people against the construction of any new reactors. I think that it is highly unlikely that China will complete construction of dozens of new power reactors by 2020.
