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Part 2 of 3 Parts (Please read Part 1 first)
Sima Shine now heads the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel. She says, "My evaluation of Iran's position is that it actually does not want to go back," says Ms. Shine, who now heads the Iran program at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies. She says, “What they would like to see, of course, is a reduction of sanctions and they understand that they have to pay something in order to get it. The question is what is the calculus of Iran - how deeply does its economy need relief?” Her fear is that nuclear negotiations could just be a way of stalling for more time as Iran keeps spinning it sophisticated centrifuges to keep spinning, building up stockpiles of enriched uranium.
The U.S. and Arab Gulf countries are deeply opposed to Iran having nuclear weapons, but it is not clear exactly how their own interests would prevent them participating in any military confrontation between Iran and Israel.
Former Israeli National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror is now a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. He first warned of the dangers of Iran’s nuclear ambitions in the early 1990s. He has a very bleak assessment of the latest developments. He says, “Israel cannot live with a situation in which the Iranians are getting closer and closer to the bomb, and it will soon have to make a decision how to stop it. I don't see any other way but to bomb it, because I don't see the Iranians retreating from their dream of having a nuclear umbrella under which they can be even more aggressive than they are today.”
Twice Israel has acted alone to destroy nuclear reactors of its enemies. It hit Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007 with little retaliation. However, many nuclear analysts question whether Israel will be able to mount a complex operation to stop Iran’s more advanced nuclear program. The Iranians have multiples sites and some of them are underground. There is also the question of what retaliation Israel might face from such action. Mr. Amidror concedes that “Everyone in Israel understands that [a strike] might lead to a very complicated war.”
Iran has pledged a “shocking response” to any such attack by Israel. It is assumed by military analysts that Iran would use its own forces and coordinate with its heavily armed proxies spread across the Middle East. These proxies include Hezbollah in Lebanon which has tens of thousands of rockets, Shia militias in Syria and Iraq, Yemen’s rebel Houthi movement and Islamic Jihad militants in the Gaza Strip.
Despite the serious risks, some hawks in Israel believe that a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program could be worthwhile, even if the Iranian nuclear program was only delayed for a few years. However, the official preference is still to promote peaceful, negotiated solutions.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has proposed to Iran a return to mutual compliance with the original JCPOA but Israel’s government opposes that. The JCPOA lifts many restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program as soon as 2025. It did not put any limits on Iran’s ballistic missile development or curb its support for militant groups across the region.
Please read Part 3 next