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Part 1 of 2 Parts
When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, there was a great fear that some of the nuclear warheads in Soviet satellite nations might fall into the hands of terrorists. Dick Cheney said that there were at least two hundred and fifty nuclear warheads that might possibly disappear. However, to date, not one Soviet nuclear weapon has been discovered outside of Russian control.
The Cold War ended with a whimper rather than a bang when the Soviet Union fell thirty years ago. Many had dreamed of this day but were surprised when it actually came to pass. The good news was that the Soviet Union, the biggest threat to the U.S., was now just a part of history. However, the big question was what would happen to the giant Soviet nuclear arsenal that was now left in Russia and fourteen other nations that had achieved independence from the Soviet empire.
If there was a struggle for operation control of the intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads left in the Ukraine and aimed at the U.S. targets, would some of them be accidentally or intentionally launched? How many of the thousands of tactical nuclear warheads left from the Soviet arsenal would become “loose nukes” and wind up for sale on the international black market?
From the perspective of the U.S., the past thirty years have seen many failures and disappointments in our relationship with Russia and other former Soviet states. Russian troops are massing at the Ukrainian-Russian border again. Putin is making extreme demands of western nations which the U.S. and NATO will most certainly reject. There is a real chance that the months ahead will see a bloody war in Ukraine.
Is there any positive news for the U.S. from the Russian front? In order to answer that question, it is useful to look back over the last thirty years and speculate on just what could have happened between the two nuclear superpowers. What matters most to U.S. national interests? The planners of U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War said that the core interest of the U.S. was to “ensure the survival of the United States as a free nation with our fundamental institutions and values intact.” This continues to be the focus of U.S. foreign policy. Events on the Russian front that could have had the greatest impact on U.S. most vital interests derived from the fact that Russia has a nuclear arsenal that could easily destroy the U.S.
A good question to ponder is what could have happened to the Soviet nuclear arsenal in December of 1991 when the Soviet Union collapses? On the television program Meet the Press, then Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney was asked this question two weeks before the Soviet Union fell. He answered, “If the Soviets do an excellent job at retaining control over their stockpile of nuclear weapons and they are 99% successful, that would mean you could still have as many as 250 that they were not able to control.”
Please read Part 2 next