Part Two of Two Parts (Please read Part One first)
The problem with the projected costs of new Chinese reactors is that information about reactor construction is under tight control of the central government. There is simply no way to know if these numbers are realistic or just propaganda. Of course, construction in China is cheaper than construction in the U.S. because of lower labor costs but the only way to drop costs by two thirds is to significantly reduce safety measures.
China intends to make nuclear reactors a major export item. There is a push right now in China to undertake major construction projects in other countries. The recent deal signed between France, China and U.K for the construction of two nuclear reactors at Hinkley Point includes provisions for the Chinese to construct a new reactor of Chinese design at Bradwell in Britain with Chinese labor. It is understood in the nuclear industry that the principle reason that China wants to construct their reactor in Britain is so that they can use it as a demonstration model to sell reactors. There is a great deal of concern in Britain about how the British are going to be able to regulate the Chinese reactor and insure that it is properly constructed and not a threat to British citizens.
Another issue of great concern with the Chinese nuclear plans is the fact that most of the new reactors will be built on the east and south coasts of China. This is where there are huge cities and major industrial centers and it allows sea water to be used for cooling. However, these coastal areas face waters where there is a great deal of seismic activity and a big threat of tsunamis. The recent nuclear disaster at Fukushima illustrates why this can be a problem. Earthquakes in the Manila trench will threaten the Chinese coast. There are also major hurricanes in these areas that could cause severe damage to nuclear power. Then there are the active volcanoes in the area. A volcanic eruption could trigger a powerful tsunami that could damage reactors on the coast.
If China constructs hundreds of new nuclear power reactors along its vulnerable coast, an earthquake, volcano or hurricane or a combination of these could trigger huge tsunamis which could severely damage or destroy not just one nuclear reactor but dozens and immediately endanger the lives of millions of Chinese. In the long run, the resulting outpouring of radiation into the ocean and atmosphere would wind up circulating around the whole planet and posing a serious threat to human civilization. It has been over four years since the Fukushima disaster and the Japanese are still not able to control the release of radioactive materials into the Pacific Ocean.
Fortunately for the world, actual Chinese reactor construction is not nearly as fast or cheap as the Forbes article projects for future Chinese reactor construction. As has been the case with reactor projects all over the world, many of the Chinese reactor projects are well behind schedule and, quite possibly, over budget. In addition, the Chinese people have already halted nuclear construction projects such as a plant to enrich uranium by taking to the streets in protest. Another major nuclear accident anywhere in the world will increase the reluctance of the Chinese people to have a reactor build anywhere near them. I believe that as time passes, the Chinese will scale back their nuclear ambitions for a number of reasons. At least, I hope that this is the case because the future of humanity could be at risk.
