I have written a post about the German withdrawal from nuclear power following the Fukushima disaster. Germany derives less than twenty percent of its electricity from nuclear power and it is anticipated that the transition to other energy sources should have little impact on the German economy. France, Germany’s next-door neighbor, is much more dependent on nuclear energy. France gets over seventy five percent of its electrical power from nuclear energy. While Germany can easily survive a retreat from nuclear power, any such retreat will be very problematical for France.
A great debate has been raging in France over the future of France’s reliance on nuclear power. Some factions say that France should continue to derive the majority of its electricity from nuclear power. They say that the current generation of nuclear reactors should be replaced by new reactors as they reach the end of their operational lifespans. Other factions want France to follow the lead of Germany and begin immediately to replace nuclear power with other energy sources for electrical generation. In between these extremes is a third group who recommend that France move slowly and carefully to gradually replace nuclear electrical generation as the current generation of reactors is retired over the next few decades.
The Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) is the French national agency charged with nuclear safety research. A recent statement from the head of the Institute sought to clarify the choices for France’s nuclear future. He said that if France is going to stop relying on nuclear energy for the majority of its electrical generation capacity, then it must do so immediately. The only other real option is to continue reliance on nuclear energy. The “go slow” or “continue debating” options are not really viable.
The current French President has begun the process of cutting the percentage of nuclear power utilization in France by thirty percent by 2025, from seventy five percent to fifty percent. He has made no official statement about what will happen after 2025.
France’s nuclear industry depends on the availability of highly trained specialists to operate its fleet of fifty eight nuclear reactors. About half of the current staff operating the reactors will retire by 2018. If France continues to debate its nuclear future and does not provide a clear statement on official energy policy, this uncertainty will make careers in the nuclear industry much less attractive to students trying to decide on a profession. So choosing to do nothing and make no firm decisions now would make the availability of a trained nuclear workforce much less certain in the future. This, in turn, would decrease investment in and political support for continued reliance on nuclear power. In a way, making no decision now will tend to bias things in the direction of making a choice to end the use of nuclear power in France.
In addition to issues with the workforce, there is also the question of availability of components needed for repairs. If the demand for parts for reactors falls off, more and more companies will get out of that business. The price of parts that are still available will go up and, once again, investment and support will fall.
Another concern that was raised is the fact that there are sets of French reactors built around the same time with the same design. If it turns out that there is a flaw in the design or a particular aging problem with one of these sets, then when it shows up in one of the set, the rest of the same family of reactors will probably be shut down to investigate. This could mean as many as five to ten reactors going off line at the same time as Frances nuclear fleet ages. This was one of the reasons that the French President wanted to reduce dependence on nuclear power.
And, finally, if there is a major nuclear accident anywhere in the world, there will be more public resistance in France against the use of nuclear power. It would appear that the most logical decision for France to make would be to abandon nuclear power as soon as possible. But that is very unlikely to happen.
