I have been posting a lot lately about nuclear war. Today, I am blogging about Poland which shares a border with Russia. With the Russian seizure of nearby Crimea, the Polish are very worried about Russian aggression in Eastern Europe.
Because of concerns about missiles from Middle Eastern nations such as Iran, the U.S. started discussing some sort of missile shield for Europe in 2002. In early 2007, the U.S. started formally negotiating with Poland for an anti-missile base in Poland. The Polish government was supportive but the Russians were opposed and offered an alternative base in Azerbaijan which was rejected. Russia then accused the U.S. of starting a new Cold War. There was a debate in Poland and strong public resistance to the planned anti-missile base. Russia said that if the base was constructed, Russia would respond with "military-technical" methods.
In late summer of 2008, after the South Ossetia war between Russia and Georgia, Poland announced that a deal have been reached with the U.S. for construction of the anti-missile base. Plans were made to place ten silo based anti-missile missiles called Ground Based Interceptors in the "European Interceptor Site in Poland." A formal document for the projecdt was signed by the U.S. and Poland The Russians said that it was now obvious that the real target of the anti-missile base was Russia, not Iran. Russia threatened to move short range missiles into Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania to destroy the Polish interceptor missiles if war broke out.
In 2009, the U.S. cancelled the plans for the construction of the missile base with the explanation that Iran was not pursuing the construction of long range missiles which had been the reason for the base in the first place. The U.S. President did mention that there were new plans being drafted for a scaled down missile shield in Poland and Poland announced plans for the construction of a Polish anti-missile shield.
Polish reaction to was mixed with some factions welcoming the cancellation of the original project and others fearing that the cancellation would make them more vulnerable to Russian aggression. The Russian were pleased with the cancellation. Other European nations had mixed reactions to the move by the U.S.
The deputy Defence Minister of Poland has just announced that Poland may ask for access to nuclear weapons under a NATO program that can loan nuclear weapon to non-nuclear states. There are only three NATO members that have nuclear weapons, the U.S., Britain and France. Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey have hosted nuclear weapons under the NATO program. If NATO provides nuclear weapons to Poland, it is a certainty that Russia will respond negatively.
Russia has been doing a lot of nuclear saber rattling around the world in the last couple of years and the Russian President has stated that Russia would consider using tactical nuclear weapons if it were losing a conventional war with NATO in Eastern Europe. Some Russian government officials and generals have hinted that Russia might consider dropping a single nuclear bomb in Eastern Europe if a conflict broke out in the hopes that it would scare NATO into withdrawing from the fight. It is understandable for the Polish people to be wary of Russian aggression and want to be able to defend themselves. However, giving the current situation in Eastern Europe with the Russians continuing involvement in eastern Ukraine, it might be best for NATO not to escalate tensions by moving nuclear weapons into Poland.
