Yesterday, I spoke about the terrible danger of global nuclear war and new technology for identifying nuclear warheads in the reduction of nuclear arsenals. I mentioned the rising tensions between the U.S. and Russia. Following the coup and government change in Ukraine in 2014, the Russians annexed the Crimea and supported rebellion in eastern Ukraine.
This Russian aggression generated great turbulence in eastern Europe as countries that shared borders with Russia feared that they might be next for Russian aggression. This includes the Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia as well as Poland. Recently Russia has been massing troops on its side of the borders of these countries and holding military exercises. The three Baltic states became members of NATO in 2004 which committed NATO including the U.S. to defend these countries in any conflict with Russia. This defense includes the possible use of nuclear weapons against Russia if a conflict escalates.
The U.S. currently maintains about two hundred tactical B-61 nuclear gravity bombs in Belgium, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. Bombers which can deliver these weapons are stationed in other NATO members. Russia has a large arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons including cruise missiles and nuclear artillery. Russia has publically stated that it would consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons against NATO if it were losing a conventional ground war.
Recently, NATO committed to move a thousand troops into each of these at-risk countries to act as "trip wires" against possible Russian invasion. Russia is also considering moving mid range missiles into the Russian province of KIalingrad on the Baltic Sea as a counter move. As tensions in eastern Europe ratchet up, it is the Baltic states that might be the area where an all out nuclear war begins.
The Baltic states are close to important military and governmental centers in Russia. Moscow, the capital of Russia is only a few hundred miles away. An attack launched from the Baltic states could be devastating for Russia. The U.S. considers the protection of the Baltic states to be integral to maintaining the credibility of NATO. The U.S. has said that protecting the Baltic states was as important as defending Berlin, Paris and London.
From a military perspective, the defense of the Baltic states is virtually impossible. Russia has enormous military resources in the region and could overrun the Baltic states in a matter of days regardless of NATO resistance in a ground war. The U.S. has not made a commitment to send troops and weapons to the Baltic states that could turn back such a Russian invasion.
If a ground war broke out in the Baltic states, it is inevitable that the conflict would spill over the border into Russia. If that happened, the Russians would have to consider that their capital could be under threat and they would escalate with the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons as they have threatened. NATO also insists that an escalating conflict in eastern Europe could be justification for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Both Russia and the U.S. have tactical nuclear weapons in the area that could be quickly deployed in an escalating conflict.
There are also new weapons being developed and deployed that could further destabilize the balance of forces in the Baltic states. The U.S. is replacing old fighters with the F-35 stealth fighter that is invisible to Russian radar. Russia is developing integrated air defenses in the area which would permit it to control the air space above a battlefield.
All in all, the situation in the Baltic states is ripe for conflict and escalation. Russian aggression countered by NATO could quickly escalate into the exchange of tactical nuclear weapons. This in turn could easily escalate into all out nuclear war between NATO and Russia which could spread to the U.S. mainland. This would be the end of human civilization. It is very important that the rising tensions in the Baltic states be dealt with diplomatically before World War III breaks out.
