I blogged recently about China's nuclear policy. China has a stated policy that they will never be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict. China decided that a few hundred nuclear warheads were sufficient to act as a deterrent to any hostile nation that might consider staging a nuclear attack against China. Not building and maintaining a huge nuclear arsenal like those of the U.S. and Russia has allowed China to spend its defense funds on building other types of weapons systems. However, discussions in the U.S. about expansion of its nuclear arsenal are prompting some in China to call for a reconsideration of nuclear policy.
In the past decade, the U.S. Department of Defense has recommended that the U.S. develop new tactical nuclear weapons with low yields which could be used on smaller battlefields than current nuclear weapons. Tong Zhao, an associate in the Carnegie Endowment's Nuclear Policy Program based in Beijing, recently said in an interview "that this more flexible form of weapon could lower the threshold of nuclear use." Zhao suggested that this move by the U.S. could convince China that the U.S. might contemplate the first use of these new tactical nuclear weapons in a conflict. This possibility may prompt the Chinese to develop their own tactical nuclear weapons and reconsider their prohibition of first-use of nuclear weapons.
The Obama Administration was considering the development and deployment of a massive global network with layers of missile defenses to protect not just the U.S. homeland and U.S. allies, but also U.S. base and troops anywhere in the world. On January 27th, the new U.S. President, Donald Trump, issued an Executive Order to the new U.S. Secretary of Defense, James Mattis, to review U.S. nuclear capability. It has been reported that the new administration is interested in pursuing the previous administration's global missile network plan.
If the U.S. does actually deploy such a massive global network of missile systems, China may decide that its current nuclear arsenal is not sufficient to prevent annihilation and increase its stock of nuclear warheads. In addition, China may decide that in order for it to retaliate successfully against a nuclear attack, it may have to abandon its policy of not launching a retaliation until enemy missiles actually land on Chinese soil. The new policy would be to launch Chinese missiles on warning that enemy missiles were coming. This increases the danger of mistakes and accidents. The world has already come close to nuclear war because warning systems issued false alerts of an attack.
Zhao said in the interview that he had seen no sign of top Chinese officials discussing or considering such changes to Chinese nuclear policy. However, Zhao did say that low-level analysts, military scholars and media commentators are increasingly suggesting that China needs to enlarge its nuclear arsenal and reconsider its nuclear policy.
Recent developments in the South China Sea have led to China consider the deployment of nuclear-tipped cruise missiles on Chinese nuclear submarines carrying out regular patrols in the South China Sea. This would move nuclear weapons out of the tight control of Beijing and into the hands of individual submarine captains. With belligerent statements from the incoming Trump Administration about blocking Chinese access to their artificial islands in the South China Sea, China's nuclear policy may be changing soon.
Peoples Liberation Army Rocket Forces Insignia:
