In my last post, I talked about the volatility of the Middle East and the possibility that Saudi Arabia might obtain nuclear weapons. I mentioned the nuclear program of Iran and the nuclear weapons in Israel. The U.S. and other countries are worried that Iran may be developing nuclear weapons despite their denial. They have maintained serious trade sanctions against Iran for years. This has had a large impact on the Iranian economy.
Recently, negotiations with Iran have been moving forward and there are hints that a preliminary deal may be in the works. In return for allowing international inspection of Iranian nuclear facilities and the freezing of the Iranian nuclear program, the trade sanctions might be partially lifted. One of the effects of this would be to unfreeze sixty billion dollars that Iran has on deposit in international banks. This would allow Iran to begin to repair the damage that trade sanctions have done to the Iranian economy. Today it was revealed that the United States quietly dropped some trade sanctions against Iran for some categories of consumer goods as part of the negotiations that have been ongoing. This was done several months ago but the news has just been made public.
The Israeli government was shocked and angered by the news of the U.S. action. Israel has strongly criticized the possibility of any temporary deal with Iran. The Prime Minister of Israel is afraid that Iran will use take the interim deal, stall during the further negotiations and, despite assurances that they will not pursue nuclear weapons, use the freed up billions to do exactly that. Israel demands that, as part of any deal, Iran must halt all enrichment of uranium, remove stockpiles of enriched uranium from Iran, close their enrichment facilities as well as facilities that can produce plutonium. The Iranians have said that these terms are unacceptable.
Estimates of how long it would take Iran to create a nuclear bomb have been tossed around recently varying from months to years. Israel has been adamant that they will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons and will consider a unilateral strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Despite the skill and weaponry of the Israeli air force, hitting the Iranian nuclear installations would be very difficult because they are widely distributed and some are buried deep underground. There is also the problem of passage through other countries' airspace. It is extremely unlikely that any of the countries that lie between Israel and Iran would allow Israel permission to cross their airspace. If Israel tries to cross without permission, they might be attacked with surface to air missiles.
(Update 11/17/13 - There are rumors circulating that Saudi Arabia is so concerned about a possible Iranian nuclear weapon that it may allow the Israeli air force to cross Saudi Arabia airspace for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.)
If Israel attacks Iran, there may be retaliation in the form of Iranian missile strikes on Israel as well as expanded attacks on Israel by the terrorist organizations that Iran supports. If Israel is attacked, they will surely call on the support of the United States. Both World Wars started with conflict between two nations that then escalated as allies on both sides of the disputes joined in. Let us hope that the Iran-Israeli dispute does not escalate and draw other nations into armed conflict.
Iranian Imperial Coat of Arms:
