Nuclear Weapons 36 - Nuclear Issues in the Middle East
I have done a number of blog posts about nuclear weapons and nuclear treaties. Recently I criticized someone who thought that we should not reduce our nuclear weapons below their current levels. We still have a thousand warheads aimed at Russia ready to launch in minutes. The Russians have an equal number aimed at us and ready to launch. This is courting the destruction of human civilization and we should end it as quickly as possible. A battle between other nuclear armed countries such as India and Pakistan could bring a nuclear winter that would be global disaster. Further down the lists of dangers but still very real is the threat of nuclear war in the Middle East.
Although they have been reluctant to admit it, it is widely believed that Israel has had nuclear weapons since the 1960s. Estimates of the Israeli arsenal vary widely from seventy five all the way to four hundred warheads. Israel has not signed the international Non-Proliferation treaty but it has said that “it would not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East.” That sounds positive but it is has never been clear exactly what they mean. Other Middle Eastern countries have repeatedly called for Israel to get rid of its nuclear weapons.
In the mean time, some of the most anti-Israeli countries in the Middle East have tried to develop their own nuclear weapons. Sadam Hussien had a nuclear weapons program in Iraq before the first Gulf War. The Israelis staged a surprise aerial attack on an Iraqi nuclear reactor to interfere with that program in 1981. We invaded Iraq in the second Gulf War partly on the pretext that they were continuing to develop nuclear weapons although that later proved not to be true.
Iran has worked for years to develop the sophisticated technology required for refining uranium to weapons grade. They insist that they are not interested in acquiring their own nuclear weapons but the U.S. and many other countries do not believe them. Harsh sanctions have been levied on Iran to force them to open their facilities to international inspection. It is known that they have deeply buried laboratories where it is feared that nuclear weapons work is being carried out.
One motivation for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon is their perception, either right or wrong, that the U.S. would be more reluctant to invade Iran if Iran had nuclear weapons. There is also the fact that Iran is a bitter enemy of Israel and fears Israeli attacks. The greatest danger to Iran right now is the possibility that Israel will attack in the near future to try to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. I am afraid that Iran will succeed in creating a nuclear bomb in the near future even if the Israelis do attack. However, reducing the size of an Iranian bomb to be able to launch it on a missile will take years.
A new report from International Atomic Energy Agency on the Middle East and nuclear weapons concluded that there is “fundamental difference of views” between Israel and the other Middle East countries.” I am not sure why there needed to be a new study and a new report since this fact has been glaringly obvious for decades.
One thing that is occurs to me is that Israel will not accept possible defeat if it is attacked by other Middle Eastern countries with or without nuclear weapons. I have always thought that Israel would execute the “Samson” option if it looked like they were going to be defeated and destroyed by their enemies. That would consist of launching a last ditch nuclear attack against major population centers and oil fields across the Middle East. Such an event would be disastrous for the whole world. A possible war in the Middle East could threaten the entire world and it is important that other countries and regions would together to try to bring peace to that troubled region.
Israel’s attack on Iraq:
