Nuclear Reactors 50 - More On Chinese Plans
I have been talking about China lately. Their National Development and Reform Commission wants to raise the percentage of power generated by nuclear plant from the two percent that it provides today up to six percent by 2020 due to concerns over fossil fuel supplies, devastating air pollution and climate change. Given that they are talking about more than a hundred new reactors, it does seem a rather modest penetration of nuclear power into the Chinese domestic market. They have laid out an ambitious timeline along with the assumption of that new reactor designs will be part of the mix.
There are currently seventeen operating nuclear reactors at six sites and another thirty two are under construction. Fifty more reactors are scheduled for construction and a hundred more are being planned for construction by 2040. Of course, the disaster at Fukushima did throw off their time table. Some construction was shut down, new permits were suspended and Chinese reactors were checked for safety. Some critics of nuclear power in China urged a refocusing of efforts and resources on renewable energy as an alternative. However building and permitting are moving forward again and the Chinese authorities have restated their commitment to nuclear power. The Chinese are developing their own designs for pressurized water reactors with help from the international nuclear industry. Newer types of reactors such as the pebble bed design are scheduled for later implementation. By 2050, the Chinese expect to be building fast neutron reactors. They even have projected the amount of electricity that will be generated by fast neutron reactors by the year 2100.
Most of China’s reactors are located on the Pacific Coast near large cities and use seawater for cooling. Twenty eight million people live within forty six miles of two nuclear reactors in the Hong Kong area. A major accident in this area would threaten the health and lives of millions of people. Devastating hurricanes have caused widespread property damage and loss of life in Hong Kong. The area is also prone to earthquakes. Climate change will cause a rise in sea level on the Chinese Pacific Coast. Some scientists say that our estimations of the amount the sea will rise are far too low. In addition, the temperature of the Pacific Ocean is rising. If the ocean becomes too hot, seawater cannot be used for cooling reactors. All these factors could contribute to the need to abandon some of the coastal nuclear reactors.
Questions have also been raised about the availability of building materials, investment capital and trained personnel needed to build all the reactors that the Chinese have announced. While I do applaud long term planning with respect to national infrastructure, I am afraid that all indications are that this new century we are in will be very turbulent both in terms of the natural environment and human society. I suspect that unforeseen circumstances will prevent the construction of all the reactors that the Chinese have planned.
Day Bay Nuclear Power Station near Hong Kong:
