Nuclear Reactors 196 - Russia Has Ambitious But Unrealistic Nuclear Reactor Export Plans
In previous blog posts, I have often mentioned the ambition of the Russian government to be a major supplier of nuclear reactors to foreign nations. The negotiations between India and Russia for the construction of twenty one new nuclear reactors has been all over the news lately. Russia is also ramping up fast breeder reactors to make plutonium which it can then sell to reactor customers to fuel their Russian reactors. Competition between Russia and Westinghouse to fuel Ukrainian reactors has also been reported. Russian environmentalist Vladimir Slivyak with EcoDefense is speaking out against the Russian nuclear industry and facing suppression for opposing the Russian nuclear ambitions.
Slivyak says that the Russians have basically ignored the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. Although the Russian nuclear push has been slowed down by corruption and technical difficulties, the Russian nuclear industry is well financed and dedicated to an ambitious program of nuclear development. One goal of the Russian nuclear program is to build dozens of reactors outside of Russia. Rosatom says that it has about one hundred billion dollars worth of reactor orders. It is doubtful that there will be much profit in these programs because foreign reactor orders usually include loan guarantees and direct Russian funding of these international projects. Any profit from sale and operation of such reactors will take decades achieve. The money that is invested in foreign reactors remains in Russia to pay the companies that manufacture components for the reactors. Thus, the survival of the Russian nuclear industry is dependent on the support of the Russian government.
As I have pointed out in the past, Russia is planning on using its nuclear exports as a way to make other countries dependent on Russian reactors and fuel in the same way that European nations are now partially dependent on Russia for oil and natural gas. There are only a few suppliers of nuclear technology and nuclear fuel in the world. Russia hopes to become a major player in this small circle of global nuclear suppliers. It is assumed that Russia will use any leverage that it gains from nuclear exports to pressure other countries into accepting Russian dominance.
Slivyak is critical of Russian nuclear ambitions and claims. Even though Russia claims to have orders to build twenty one new nuclear reactors for India and orders from other countries, he points out that Russia have been unable to build more than a few domestic reactors in the past few decades. Russia has not be able to build more than one new reactor per year. In spite of their bragging about one hundred billion in reactor orders, actual construction of Russian reactors is only taking place in Russia, Belarus and China. Slivyak says that Rosatom is promising much more than it could deliver.
Several years ago, Russia and Vietnam signed an agreement for a new reactor. Construction was to begin almost immediately. Now it has been reported that the Vietnam deal will be postponed until 2020. A contract was signed with Turkey before Vietnam for a reactor but construction has still not begun. Apparently most of the foreign orders for Russian reactors are really just agreements to negotiate over the building of reactors, not actual hard orders with fixed deadlines. Rosatom has been caught giving out exaggerated and false information about reactor orders.
One big concern about Russian nuclear plans is that if Rosatom actually begins to construct reactors, there may be serious pressure to finish any particular reactor as quickly as possible which could seriously compromise reactor safety in spite of claims that a new unbuilt and untested Russian reactor design is (or will be) the safest reactor in the world.
Russia's Putin and India's Modi discuss bilateral trade agreements:
