Nuclear Weapons 130 - Negotiations with Iran Over Its Nuclear Program Are In Jeopardy
I have not posted much about the ongoing negotiations between Iran and six countries including the U.S., U.K, France, Germany, China, and Russia (six powers) concerning the Iranian nuclear program. Iran is currently under heavy sanctions from these countries to force Iran to halt the enrichment of uranium. Iran has made a big point out of having the right to a peaceful nuclear program and to enrich uranium for reactor fuel. The six powers are concerned that Iran is enriching uranium for the purpose of creation nuclear weapons which Iran denies.
A preliminary agreement was expected by the deadline of 3/31/2015 with a final agreement to be signed in June. However, the negotiations have continued past the deadline. The main sticking point seem to be that the six powers want Iran to suspend uranium enrichment and open all their nuclear facilities to international inspection in return for a phased ending of current sanctions in stages over time as inspections verify Iranian compliance. Iran wants all the sanctions ended immediately in return for agreeing to inspections.
Hardliners in the U.S. Congress are trying to sink the negotiations. Forty seven Republican Senators signed a letter to Iran basically saying that the U.S. President can sign all the agreements that he wants but if Congress and the next President are not happy with the deal, they will just cancel it. This contradicts the U.S. agreement on international treaties to put such treaties in the same category as domestic laws. In addition, the Constitution gives the President the authority to do all negotiating with foreign powers. Congress can approve or disapprove but critics of the letter say that the signers are trying to influence the negotiations. The real hard liners are saying that Iran cannot be trusted to comply with any agreement and they want to attack Iran. Israel is lobbying hard for taking any action necessary to destroy existing equipment that Iran might use to create nuclear weapons. In Iran, their hardliners claim that the United States cannot be trusted and are calling for the negotiations to end.
The big problem with failing to reach a deal is the fact that the Republican who control both houses of our Congress are working on bills for even tougher sanctions on Iran. If negotiations fail and our Congress passes tougher sanctions, the other countries in the six powers are talking about dropping sanctions on Iran completely. This would basically destroy the whole concept of sanction pressure because it would only be the United States still imposing sanctions and Iran would have plenty of opportunity for trade with the rest of the six powers.
It looks to me as if the negotiators are sort of playing a game of chicken. The pressure is on the six powers to find an acceptable deal before everything is derailed by the U.S. hardliners. The same thing is going on with the Iranian negotiators and their hardliners. Each side has what they are saying is a non-negotiable demand and each side is hoping that the other side will blink first and cave in. If neither side gives in, the negotiations will be dead. This will lead to a situation in which the U.S. has much less influence in any future negotiations. Iran will continue its nuclear program and Israel may attempt to attack their facilities. This would be a very bad outcome for the whole world. Even a less than perfect agreement could provide for a slowing down of the Iranian nuclear program and a chance for the United Nations to continue to work on reducing the isolation of Iran and slowing or halting the Iranian nuclear program completely.
Iranian nuclear sites:
