Nuclear Reactors 296 - Chinese Nuclear Ambitions May Post Existential Threat To Humanity - Part One of Two Parts
Part One of Two Parts
China has been getting a lot of press lately about their aggressive plans to build over a hundred nuclear power reactors in the next fifteen years. Forbes magazine recently published an article saying that "China shows the way to build nuclear reactors fast and cheap." The article went on to say that there should be over four hundred new nuclear reactors in China by 2050 generating more than 350 gigawatts of electricity as a result of over a trillion dollars of investment in nuclear infrastructure. Critics of China's bold plans point out that history has shown that the world can expect about one major nuclear accident for every three thousand years of nuclear power reactor operation. This means that four hundred reactors operating for eight years should generate at least one major accident by global averages.
If China had a record of safety and competence in its construction industry, then perhaps it would take longer than eight years for a major accident to happen. But this is not the case. China has a horrible record of corruption, lack of regulation, lack of competence, etc. that has resulted in many deaths related to collapse of buildings due to poor construction. Recently there were huge explosions and fires at the port of Tianjin. They were a result of corruption, greed, failure to follow regulations, etc. Hazardous wastes with explosive potential were stored near residential areas and regulations about spacing of storage and amounts of waste permitted were ignored. Recent major wrecks on bullet train lines have been attributed by government investigators to "design flaws and sloppy management." With respect to nuclear reactor construction, one of the biggest nuclear reactor construction companies in China left out a lot of protective steel in the foundation of a reactor building at the Daya Bay nuclear power plant near Hong Kong in 1987 because the construction crew misread the blueprints.
Currently China has multiple reactor projects with different new designs all being built simultaneously. So none of these reactor designs has any history of operation. The Chinese government is deeply involved in the nuclear industry in China and maintains a great deal of secrecy with respect to the design, cost and construction of nuclear reactors. Obviously, this is an invitation for the industry to ignore regulations and cut corners wherever possible, especially when there is heavy pressure to move quickly. It is quite possible that there would be more frequent major accidents than the global average if China carries through with its ambitious plans.
With respect to the low announced cost of the planned Chinese reactors, some critics are skeptical of the numbers quoted in the Forbes article. Six reactors are being built at Yangjiang for a projected cost of about twelve billion dollars. This amounts to about two billion dollars per reactor as opposed to the current cost of about six billion dollars per reactor in the West. Two reactors being built on Hainan Island are supposed to cost about three billion dollars. This is even less than the optimistic two billion dollars per reactors for Yangjiang. All of these new reactors are supposed to take about five years to construct which is much faster than actual reactor construction time required in the developed world.
Please read Part Two
Daya Bay nuclear power plant:
