Nuclear Weapons 181 - Could a U.S. -Russian Showdown In Syria Ignite World War III? - Part Two of Two Parts
Part Two of Two Parts (Please read Part One first)
In the U.S., there have been many politicians and political commentators calling for more support for the "moderate" Syrian rebels and the establishment of a no fly zone enforced by the U.S. This would be a safe haven for Syrians fleeing the devastation of the civil war and the repeated bombings by forces opposed to the different rebel factions. Some of those promoting the no-fly zone say that it should include Russia planes. This would be in clear violation of international law. Russia is operating in Syria with the permission of the lawful Syrian government. The U.S. is supplying weapons and supplies to rebels trying to overthrow the legitimate Syrian regime.
In the Republican Presidential debate last night, many of the candidates supported a no-fly zone in Syria. If one of them is elected President in 2016, he or she would have the power to declare such a no-fly zone as commander in chief. (This is not necessarily a partisan position. Hillary Clinton, running for President on the Democratic side has also expressed support for a no-fly zone.) When Chris Christie was asked if his support for a no-fly zone extended to shooting down any Russian plane that entered the no-fly zone, he immediately said that he certainly would shoot down a Russian plane without hesitation. I was stunned by his response.
If the U.S. established a no-fly zone in Syria and shot down a Russian plane, it would be a declaration of war against Russia. Both the U.S. and Russia have over four thousand nuclear warhead aimed at the each other which could be launched in minutes. It would mean the end of human civilization and the death of most of the human race. There have already been several times when nuclear war almost broke out between the U.S. and Russia. In each of three incidents, it was the courage and humanity of a single military officer on either the U.S. or the Russia side who refused to start the war that could destroy humanity. With rising tensions in the world, especially between the U.S. and Russia, the possibility of nuclear war is higher than it has been since the end of the Cold war with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. It is stark insanity to risk annihilating human civilization over a civil war in Syria.
If the U.S. shot down a Russia plane over Syria, what would Putin's response be? His popularity in Russia is based on his "tough guy" stance with other nations. He may be bluffing with is rattling of nuclear sabers but when and if his bluff is called, how would he respond? He is a brutal thug but I don't think he is crazy enough to think that anyone can win an all out nuclear war. I think that if a Russian plane were shot down in Syria by the U.S. enforcing a no-fly zone, Putin could possibly detonate a tactical nuclear device in the Syrian desert. Few people would be harmed and little radiation would be spread. After all, both we and the Soviets tested small nuclear devices in the deserts of our own countries before the test-ban treaty. Putin could detonate a few kiloton nuclear device and then say to the U.S. "Abandon the no-fly zone and get out of Syria or the next nuke will hit the Syrian rebels you are supporting." What would the U.S. do? What could the U.S. do? Our choices would be to back down or start World War III.
This scenario is merely a possibility if certain trends continue. It is probably not likely. However, it is certainly possible.
Russian cruise missile:
