Nuclear Weapons 238 - China Analyst Believes Diplomacy Best Way To Deal With North Korea
The threat of North Korean nuclear weapons has been in the news a lot. I have blogged about North Korea before. They have a few nuclear warheads and are working on building more. They are busy working on missiles to carry their nuclear warheads. There have been numerous threats by the N.K. regime to use nuclear weapons against South Korea, the U.S. and other neighboring countries. The international community has attempted different measure to deal with N.K. including trade sanctions and multinational negotiations none of which have stopped the N.K. nuclear program. There are contingency plans for U.S. marines to carry out a surgical strike on the N.K. nuclear facilities if the current situations deteriorates. However, an analyst believes that such an action could start a war with China.
China is N.K.'s only ally. China have been N.K.'s principle trading partner since the Korean War and has repeatedly come to the aid of N.K. in difficult times. They have had a military defense treaty since 1961 which would obligate China to respond if N.K. was attacked. China is playing a dangerous game of tightrope in its continued support of N.K. and its desire to have beneficial relations with other countries in the area. Other nations have tried to pressure China to force N.K. to moderate its rhetoric and actions with limited success.
" 38 North is a Web site, blog, and think tank about North Korea; it is a program of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies and is authored by certain faculty members and by guest commentators." (Wikipedia)
John Drury, a China expert, recently wrote a report on the N.K. situation for the 38 North. He said "If the United States launches a pre-emptive strike not to prevent a specific, imminent missile attack, but rather to prevent North Korea from perfecting an intercontinental nuclear strike capability, it is unlikely to meet Beijing's standard for jus ad bellum (right to war). On the contrary, a strike of this nature could likely drive Beijing to side with the North in accordance with their 1961 treaty. 'Surgery' would rapidly descend into a bloodbath. 'Pre-emption' would start a war."
He went on to say that N.K. recently touted the 1961 defense treaty with China and claimed that it was on "firm legal ground." China apparently believes that sanctions and threats of military action will not affect the N.K. regime and that diplomatic measures are the best (and perhaps the only) way to get N.K. to abandon the development of its nuclear arsenal and warhead delivery systems. China is betting that helping N.K. economic development and working to integrate N.K. into the association of neighboring countries will moderate N.K.s militaristic impulses and actions.
Drury believes that "If the next US president adopts an engagement strategy, Xi Jinping's government would likely step up its own work to achieve short-term breakthroughs and long-term solutions. Paradoxically, Washington's best chance of getting China to apply constructive pressure on its errant neighbor is through a major U.S. initiative to negotiate with Kim Jong-un."
North Korea:
