Nuclear Weapons 291 - India May Be Elevating China Above Pakistan As Its Primary Enemy
India maintains over a hundred nuclear warheads and multiple delivery systems to counter the nuclear arsenal of Pakistan with whom they have fought three wars. Now stories are circulating that suggest that India is changing its nuclear policy to include a greater focus on China as a potential enemy.
For the past month, Indian and Chinese border troops have confronted each other near a valley controlled by China. The valley lies between India and Bhutan which is a close ally of India. The valley also allows China to access the “Chicken’s Neck” which is a thin strip of land that connects India to its remote northeastern territories. China claims that Indian troops entered a region called Donglang by China and Doklam by India. China says that Indian troops interfered with the construction of a road on the Himalayan plateau.
In the most recent edition of After Midnight, a digital journal, two U.S. experts in international nuclear affairs claimed that India is developing a missile that can reach any part of China. The article also said that India has produced over thirteen hundred pounds of plutonium that could be used to manufacture up to two hundred new nuclear warheads.
China, India and Pakistan are all working on the development of new ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and sea-based systems for delivering nuclear warheads against enemy targets. Both India and China have stated that they will not be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict. But they threaten any enemy who does use nuclear weapons against them with massive retaliation.
A former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan has said that “China appears to have maintained a measure of ambiguity on whether its 'no first use' pledge will be applicable to India. An unambiguous clarification on this issue has to be sought from China.”
A U.S. professor in international politics specializing in nuclear weapons and disarmament said that “I think India's focus has shifted to China sometime back, which is why India is focusing on acquiring long-range missiles and nuclear missile submarines. But possibly not to antagonize China, India has so far not built intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) missiles. ICBM development will probably happen now. But I don't think warhead numbers indicate anything regarding who the target is.” The professor has seen no evidence that India is working on a massive increase in the number of nuclear warheads that it possesses.
An Associate Professor of Disarmament Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University said “I think India is fast-tracking its nuclear development program because of China. Yes, we are bullish because fears have shifted and our ballistic missile development program is progressing at a feverish pace.”
The editor of FORCE, a magazine about the national security of India, said, in response to the article in After Midnight, “When tensions escalate, this article appears. Look, research work is different from reality. As far back as in May 1998, when we conducted a series of five nuclear bomb test explosions, the former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee told then US president Bill Clinton that China was a threat. This is sensationalism, its fundamentals are shaky.”
An Indian expert on China also responded to the article in After Midnight, saying “This is a speculative report. As part of the India-US nuclear deal, we agreed to place 60 percent of our nuclear plants under the International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards with the remaining 40 percent left for military purposes. India has to generate nuclear weapons from these 40 percent assets.”
