Nuclear Weapons 335 - U.S. 2018 Nuclear Posture Review - Part 2 of 2 Parts
Part 2 of 2 Parts (Pease read Part 1 first)
The bottom line is that the Trump administration wants to spend a lot of money to build more nuclear weapons. Considering that we and the Russians already have enough nuclear warheads to end human civilization many times over, their request for more of these weapons would appear to be primarily motivated by political and economic considerations. Political because they believe that having more weapons will make the U.S. appear more powerful. Economic because defense contractors will make billions of dollars building the new weapons. One thing their request for more nuclear weapons is not is good military policy.
Another change from the previous NPR is the fact that the new draft of the NPR makes scant reference to the critical role that diplomacy should play in nuclear strategy. No one can “win” a nuclear war. The best nuclear strategy is to prevent a nuclear war. Unfortunately, the nation’s diplomatic corps have been decimated by the Trump administration with many critical diplomatic posts going unfilled for more than a year.
The new draft NPR also makes no mention of Article VI of the U.N. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons although it does make vague references to reduction on nuclear weapons in the U.S. from Cold War levels. The U.S. has signed this treaty which obligates it to work on nuclear disarmament. If the U.S. proceeds with a major investment in the creation of new nuclear weapons, other signatories of the treaty may decide that the U.S. is not really serious about disarmament. This could reduce their commitment to disarmament.
The U.S., while not a signatory of Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, did voice strong support for the work of the Treaty organization in the last NPR. The new NPR states that the U.S. will not resume nuclear testing unless it is deemed necessary, what ever that means.
The draft NPR does affirm the U.S. support for NATO. However, Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO in his speeches and tweets. He has said that other NATO nations are not paying their fair share for the security that NATO provides.
There has been great concern that Trump is erratic and juvenile. People are afraid that he might capriciously order a nuclear strike against a perceived adversary. After all, the U.S. president has the sole authority to order the use of nuclear weapons. The draft NPR tries to reassure readers that “Any U.S. decision to employ nuclear weapons would follow a deliberative process.” The truth of the matter is that the Joint Chiefs would have about five minutes to try to talk the President out of using nuclear weapons. If he cannot be dissuaded from such action, then the entire U.S. military is bound by the Constitution to obey him.
In any case, the new draft NPR primarily reflects the policies of Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford. It cannot be said to be the policy of Trump except in such broad strokes as “spend more money on more nukes.” Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail when it comes time for Congress to pass budgets for military hardware.
