Nuclear Reactors 613 - World Nuclear Association Presents Seven Steps To Promote Nuclear Power - Part 1 of 3 Parts
Part 1 of 3 Parts
Mikhail Chudakov is the head of the World Nuclear Association nuclear energy department. At the World Nuclear Association Symposium 2018 held in London last week, Chudakov said that the nuclear industry needs to change public acceptance for nuclear power to public demand for nuclear power which he claims is a safe, reliable, sustainable and low-carbon source of electricity. Readers of this blog will know that I take exception to all of these claims.
Chudakov said, “We know the challenges: World energy consumption is expected to grow at an annual growth rate of about 1%, but electricity consumption will grow at a higher rate of about 2.5% per year up to 2030 and around 2% thereafter. With virtually no greenhouse gas emissions during operation, nuclear power can have an important role to play in achieving [the United Nation's] Sustainable Development Goals, meeting the targets set out in the Paris Agreement.”
He went on to point out that the challenge of limiting global temperature increase to two degrees will not be easy. Seventy percent of the world’s electricity currently comes from the burning of fossil fuels. To hold down the rise in temperature, it will be necessary for eighty percent of global electricity to be derived from low-carbon sources by 2030. In order to accomplish this, all low-carbon sources will have to be scaled up.
He said, “If nuclear power deployment doesn’t grow in line with this scenario, the other technologies will not make up the gap. And we will not meet our climate targets that are critical to life on this planet.”
The existing projections of the International Atomic Energy Agency suggest that a best case for use of nuclear energy would require that it be increased by thirty percent over 2017 levels by 2030 and then increased by ninety percent by 2050. In a low case projection, nuclear energy would decline until 2040 and then rebound back to the 2030 level by 2050. The best case would see nuclear energy rising to about six percent of global electricity generation by 2050 and the low case would reach three percent of global electricity generation by 2050. The new projections from the IAEA have not yet been published but they suggest that the numbers would be two point eight percent for the low case and five point six percent for the best case by 2050.
The nuclear industry has announced the Harmony goal of adding one thousand gigawatts of new nuclear power to the global grid by 2050. This would have nuclear energy accounting for twenty five percent of global electricity generation. Chudakov said: “Last year’s high case was 700 Giga Watts. Where is the 1000 Giga Watts plus of new capacity? We can’t see it. Where is our 25% of electricity production by 2050? We are already losing the battle and we will be responsible for this. This should be a big wake up call for all of us.”
Chudakov also provided notes along with his verbal presentation. In the notes, he said, “the early retirement or lack of interest in extending the operating life of nuclear power plants in some countries, due to the reduced competitiveness of nuclear power in the short run and nuclear policies in several countries following the accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011”. His notes added: “We are still looking into a heavy new build schedule to replace the large figure of capacity that will go away due to retiring reactors.”
Please read Part 2