My last few posts have dealt with the Middle East and the complex relationship between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel. There is an old adage that says "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." I am afraid that this saying does not apply to this situation. All three of them hate the other two. There are nationalist, religious and ethnic divides behind this animosity. Israel has had nuclear weapons for decades although they will not admit it. Saudi Arabia has said that it will acquire nuclear weapons if Iran gets them. Iran appears to be working toward nuclear weapons but claims that they are not. Israel has sworn that they will not let Iran get an atomic bomb.
Given Iran's hostility against Israel and the example of what the U.S. did to Iraq, Iran obviously wants to have nuclear weapons to counter balance the Israeli nuclear weapons and discourage the U.S. from attacking. They have been building underground labs and heavily fortified nuclear facilities around Iran. Iran currently has about four hundred and fifty pounds of uranium enriched to twenty percent. With an additional one hundred pounds of enriched uranium, Iran would have enough to quickly enrich up to weapons grade and build a bomb. Iran is also building a plutonium reactor which would help them with nuclear weapon development.
Iran is in the middle of complex negotiations with the U.S. and five other countries which have imposed crippling trade sanctions on Iran. The game that is being played out consists of the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany and Russia, China, trying to get Iran to stop enriching uranium and open up all of its nuclear facilities for inspection. Iran is trying to get trade sanctions lifted while holding on to its enrichment facilities which it claims are only for peaceful purposes. Reports about the progress of the negotiations have been going up and down like a roller coaster, optimistic one day, pessimistic the next. Today it was announced that there was a preliminary agreement to talk again in ten days.
It would be very difficult to destroy the Iranian nuclear program even with the full firepower of the United States air force. Israel may be tempted to go after prominent targets such as the partially constructed plutonium reactor which Israel fears may be part of a weapons program. Iran could retaliate with their conventional missiles and proxy attacks by terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. This might trigger a larger war that could draw in other Arab countries in the regions.
I have talked in the past about what I call the Samson option. If Israel is attacked by nearby Arab countries and it feels that it is losing, I am afraid that they may unleash a nuclear hell on oil facilities, capitols and religious sites in the countries of the Arab attackers. At the least, this would kill millions and spread radioactivity around the planet. In the worst case scenario, it might trigger another world war with additional nuclear arsenals being brought into the battle. All of this could cause a nuclear winter. Stay tuned.
Site of Iran's Arak heavy water plutonium reactor:
