I have posted several blogs about the decades long hostility between Pakistan and India. These two countries have been at odds since they were created when Britain broke up its Indian colony in 1949 to create a country for Muslims and a country for Hindus. Both countries have nuclear warheads and multiple means for delivery. There have been numerous border skirmishes and several full blown conventional wars. Neither country has signed nuclear non-proliferation or nuclear disarmament treaties. Recently, it was reported that Pakistan had once come close to dropping an atomic bomb on India.
The Kargil war between Pakistan and India took place between May and July of 1999 in the Kargil area in the north Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir near the Line of Control which designates the border between the two countries. The war was triggered by the infiltration of Pakistani soldiers and Kashmiri militants into the area on the Indian side of the border. Pakistan claimed the war was started entirely by the Kashmiri insurgents but captured documents proved that Pakistani paramilitary forces were also involved. Indian troops and the Indian Air Force recaptured most of the area on the Indian side of the border. With widespread international condemnation of Pakistani actions, Pakistan ultimately withdrew from the remaining areas that they held in India.
The nuclear threat came to light when Bruce Reidel wrote an obituary for Sandy Berger who died from cancer this week. Berger had been a national security advisor to President Bill Clinton at the time of the Kargil war. On July 4th of 1999, the CIA warned President Clinton about Pakistani actions during the daily presidential intelligence briefing. The President was going to meet with Nawaz Sharif, the Pakistani Prime Minister, later that day.
The CIA had intelligence that indicated that the Pakistani military was preparing for the deployment of their nuclear weapons. The CIA feared that they were considering actually using their nuclear bombs on India because Pakistan was losing. Berger urged the President to listen to what Sharif had to say but to respond with a firm statement against the use of nuclear weapons. Berger said that the President should point out to Sharif that Pakistan was responsible for the current state of crisis between Pakistan and India. He advised that the President should emphasize that it was the responsibility of Pakistan to end the crisis without any conditions or compensation. Berger knew that the President was inclined toward compromise but insisted that there could be no deal brokered to resolve the situation and that Pakistan must unilaterally withdraw from the confrontation with India.
Prime Minister Sharif agreed to withdraw all Pakistani forces from Indian territory and to end the war. This was quickly accomplished and the danger of nuclear escalation was avoided. It is believed that part of the reason that Sharif later was deposed in a coup by the army had to do with his ending of the Kargil war. He was exiled from Pakistan and lived in Saudi Arabia for more than a decade.
Had Pakistan actually drop a nuclear bomb on India, it is likely that India would have reciprocated. It is estimated that each country has at least a hundred nuclear warheads. If as few as one hundred nuclear warheads were exploded anywhere in the world, there is a serious possibility that a nuclear winter would result which could destroy human civilization. The prevention of a nuclear war between Pakistan and India in 1999 did not just save millions of people in the two countries but may well have saved billions of lives worldwide.
