There are a lot reasons that nuclear power is not a good idea in general. Then there are reasons that are specific to a particular country. In the developing world, there are countries whose need for electricity may not warrant the expense and problems of developing nuclear power plants, but they still want them as some sort of symbol of their dedication to improving their economy and society. One such country is Kenya.
There is a wide-spread belief that Kenya suffers from a short supply of overly expensive electricity. As it turns out, this belief may not be true. Kenyan power is actually reasonably priced. And Kenyan governments have consistently exaggerated the prospects for economic growth and the need for a huge increase in electrical generating capacity.
Kenya has the ability to generate about twenty four hundred megawatts. Its peak demand is about sixteen hundred megawatts. That means that it has an excess capacity equal to fifty percent of its peak demand. Excess capacity can lead to higher prices for electricity if some power plants remain idle because they are not needed.
Recent government estimates of Kenya’s future need for electricity stated that peak demand would rise to over forty-seven hundred megawatts by 2020. A German engineering company also produce a recent estimate to Kenya’s future need for electricity. They say that Kenya’s peak demand will about twenty-three hundred megawatts by 2020. The German estimate is far more reliable and suggests that Kenya could satisfy estimated peak demand in 2020 with the generating capacity that it currently has.
The real problem that Kenya has is not a short supply of electricity but the ability to distribute electricity. The existing Kenyan power grid and distribution system cannot handle any more power that is currently being generated. And, in addition, not enough money is currently being spent on needed maintenance. Without more routine maintenance and improvements in the grid and distribution system, additional power would be wasted.
With respect to demand, about six million customers are currently connected to the grid in Kenya. The customer base has grown by five hundred percent in the past seven years, but the demand has remained low. The reason for this is that most Kenyans still have very low income levels. They just cannot afford to pay for modern appliances for cooking, heating, air conditioning or refrigeration.
Since 2012, the Kenyan government has been working on obtaining nuclear power. They have conferred with the International Atomic Energy Agency. In 2016, the Kenyan Nuclear Electric Board obtained the approval of the IAEA. They have signed memoranda of understanding with Russia, China, South Korea and Slovakia for the construction of four nuclear power plants with a total of four gigawatts of capacity. The estimated cost of these projects is around four billion dollars. (Given that an individual reactor can cost more than six billion dollars, an estimate of five billion dollars for four reactors seems very low.)
The current low consumer demand, slow economic growth, wide-spread poverty and the condition of the grid and distribution system in Kenya indicate that the proposed nuclear reactors would be a huge waste of money for this poor country.
