Part 1 of 2 Parts
Analysis of Nuclear Fuel Availability at EU Level from a Security of Supply Perspective is a report from the Euroatom Supply Agency Advisory Committee Working Group on Prices and Security of Supply. The report is dated March 2020 and was released by the agency on the 4th May. This report identifies possible threats and restrictions which could potentially impact the availability of nuclear fuel which could reduce the provision of electricity at affordable prices to all European Union consumer. A previous report on this subject was published in 2015.
While some members of the European Union are shutting down all their nuclear power reactors, others are building new reactors so the question of the availability of uranium is a very important one for officials responsible for the European Union power supply.
The working group methodically reviewed the risks from threats to the from supply and demand balance, commercial and technical causes, and political and regulatory causes. Each on of the risks was assessed according to its probability, the scale of its likely consequences and the duration of its impact on supply. The group was able to compile a ranked list of the ten most important risks to the security of supply.
The report concludes that the fuel supply and inventories should continue to be sufficient to ensure stable operation of all nuclear power plants in the
European Union. Unfortunately, the situation of some fuel markets has not improved since the 2015 report was published. The top three risks that were identified in the current report include a lack of transport hubs that are open to the shipment of nuclear materials; a lack of significant investments in conversion facility; and the permanent reduction of production of uranium as well as exploration for new sources of uranium. These three major risks are different from the top three risks mentioned in the 2015 report which included a lack of investment in the development of new mines, overdependence of a single source of uranium supply and a lack of synchronization and over-regulation in transport authorization.
The 2020 report states that the transport sector is often overlooked by the end users. The sector is exposed to various challenges which could easily endanger the security of the supply. The main problem is a difficulty in finding transport companies and/or ports willing to receive nuclear material shipment which make it increasingly expensive and more complex.
Installed conversion capacity for uranium hexafluoride (also known as UF6) has significantly exceed demand for years according to the new report. Together with the extensive use of secondary supplies this has resulted in depressed prices. This in turn has resulted in some conversion facilities to halt production. Other conversion facilities are producing uranium hexafluoride far below their nominal capacity. Investment in new capacity requires stable and sustainable prices because construction and licensing such conversion facilities can occupy ten years or more.
The report notes, “If the supply is reduced and not replaced, this may lead not only to an imbalance in supply and demand in terms of volumes, but also to a reduction in the diversification of the supply sources.”
Please read Part 2 next.