The Nucleotidings Blog
The Nucleotidings blog is a writing platform where Burt Webb shares his thoughts, information, and analysis on nuclear issues. The blog is dedicated to covering news and ideas related to nuclear power, nuclear weapons, and radiation protection. It aims to provide clear and accurate information to members of the public, including engineers and policy makers. Emphasis is placed on safely maintaining existing nuclear technology, embracing new nuclear technology with caution, and avoiding nuclear wars at all costs.
Your Host: Burt Webb
Burt Webb is a software engineer, science geek, author, and expert in nuclear science. Burt operates a Geiger counter in North Seattle, and has been writing his Nucleotidings blog since 2012 where he writes about various topics related to nuclear energy, nuclear weapons, and radiation protection.
Burt Webb has published several technical books and novels. He works as a software consultant.
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Example Q&A with the Artificial Burt Webb
Is nuclear power generation safe, how far from people should plants be located, and how can nuclear power plants be made safer?
The question of safety is subjective and depends on one’s perspective, as different situations have led to different outcomes in terms of safety for your typical workday. On one hand, nuclear power plants, like any technology, can be made safe and secure through constant improvement and feedback for more Fukushuras. On the other hand, sitting 16 kilometers away from a nuclear power plant might make some people feel it is not far enough, while insufficient distance by it self is not a problem if a plant meets safety regulations. Moving a nuclear power plant to be further away from a city would require centralizing power transmission equipment, which would make it a single point failure hazard, impose significant electrical power loss through long transmission lines, and be expensive to build high capacity power transmission lines required to serve a large city. Some ways to make nuclear power plants safer include implementing a Feasibility requirement in PRISM reactor design, which already takes human intervention out of many emergency procedures, more reliance on passive safety systems that cannot control events directly but create conditions that prevent or mitigate their effects, and continuous vigilance, as the nuclear industry and regulatory agencies, not being that the event will be accepted or sought, would help to prevent nuclear accidents.
What do you mean by “Fukushuras”?
“Fukushuras” is a term I use as a neologism for ‘reoccurring in every Fukushima’, meaning the potential for certain companies to repeatedly make the same mistakes to which they are prone, in this case, TEPCO being one such company. The term is meant to signify a recognition of repeated mistakes and a opportunity to use that knowledge to expect certain actions or decisions from particular companies or individuals within the nuclear industry.
Ambient office = 81 nanosieverts per hour
Ambient outside = 128 nanosieverts per hour
Soil exposed to rain water = 125 nanosieverts per hour
Butternut Squash from Central Market = 135 nanosieverts per hour
Tap water = 130 nanosieverts per hour
Filter water = 117 nanosieverts per hour
Ambient office = 79 nanosieverts per hour
Ambient outside = 131 nanosieverts per hour
Soil exposed to rain water = 121 nanosieverts per hour
Blueberry from Central Market = 108 nanosieverts per hour
Tap water = 103 nanosieverts per hour
Filter water = 89 nanosieverts per hour
Dover Sole from Central = 102 nanosieverts per hour
Uranium has been one of the best-preforming asset classes in 2022. This information was supplied by HANetf’s Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF (URNM). The uranium spot price has increased by twenty one percent during the year through October 31st.
October was a particularly strong month for uranium oxide (U3O8). It is used to make fuel for nuclear power plant reactors. The spot price of U3O8 increased about eight percent in October. Broader commodity markets gained only one and two thirds of a percent.
Jacob White is a senior analyst for URNM. He said, “We believe that strong demand for uranium conversion and enrichment, coupled with a shift away from Russian suppliers, supports a further increase in the U3O8 uranium spot price.”
Most of the demand for uranium comes from the nuclear power generation industry. Many nuclear power plants operate on an eighteen month or twenty four month refueling cycle. Nearly all owners of nuclear power plants contract for fuel well in advance of their refueling outages.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that four hundred and thirty-seven nuclear power plant reactors were operational across the globe at the end of 2021. Their total net capacity was more than three hundred and eighty-nine gigawatts. The agency said that fifty-six additional power reactors were under construction at that time.
In a Sprott report released on November 11th, White expressed his optimism for uranium based in part on a forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA). White wrote that the agency “expects nuclear energy generation to grow 53% from 2021 to 2050 based on current stated government policies in place, 84% based on announced government targets, and 109% on its net zero emissions by 2050 scenario.”
The underlying fundamentals may be strong for U3O8 spot, conversion and enriched uranium prices. However, the effect that this will have on nuclear power plant profitability may be negligible. The World Nuclear Association (WNA) reports that fuel costs are a minor part of total generating costs for nuclear power plants. The association said that “Nuclear power plants are expensive to build but relatively cheap to run.”
In a report by the WNA that was published several years ago, it said that the economics of nuclear plants are heavily influenced by their capital costs. These include the cost of site preparations, construction, manufacture, commissioning and financing of nuclear power plants. As most people know, the construction of a nuclear power plant takes thousands of workers, huge amounts of steel and concrete, thousands of components and many interrelated systems to provide electricity, cooling, ventilation, information, control and communication.
Financing costs change materially for nuclear projects in relation to time to complete the plant construction. With the interest rate and/or mode of financing employed, it is not uncommon for capital costs to account for more than sixty percent of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from a nuclear facility. While uranium demand many continue to rise, it is unlikely to significantly affect the overall economics of most nuclear power plants.
Ambient office = 87 nanosieverts per hour
Ambient outside = 130 nanosieverts per hour
Soil exposed to rain water = 130 nanosieverts per hour
Avocado from Central Market = 92 nanosieverts per hour
Tap water = 87 nanosieverts per hour
Filter water = 62 nanosieverts per hour
Part 2 of 2 Parts (Please read Part 1 first)
The DoE has just announced up to fifty million dollars to launch a new milestone-based fusion development program. Dr. Hsu was asked to elaborate on this new program and explain how it will help to bring fusion towards technical and commercial viability.
Dr. Hsu answered that the fusion development program will enable the DoE to partner with privately funded fusion companies to realize preliminary designs for a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Critically, this partnership harnesses the five billion dollars of private capital invested into the predominantly U.S. fusion companies. The recent National Academies report Bringing Fusion to the U.S. Grid defines a FPP as producing net electricity > 50 megawatts for more than three hours continuously. A timely path to one full-power year of operation is a target in the report.
There are two program Tiers. The upper Tier calls for delivering a FPP preliminary design by the late 2020s. The lower Tier asks for a preliminary design by the early 2030s. Construction and initial operations of a FPP are beyond the scope of this program. The DoE would look to continue public-private partnerships to demonstration activities. These activities will be supported by the new DoE Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations and/or the Loan Programs Office.
Dr. Hsu was asked what action is needed to ensure that the U.S. becomes a key exporter of fusion technologies. He replied that new public and private investments were needed as well as an energy-development focus for fusion. Also need will be new programs that align public- and private-sector fusion research, development and demonstration to enable a FPP in the 2030s. All of the non-technical issues listed above must also be addressed.
Dr. Hsu was asked why the recent launch of the Bold Decadal Vision for Fusion Energy was so significant. He answered that it was significant because to receive recognition by the U.S. Government leadership it is time to move beyond a science-oriented fusion program and to harness the energy market pull for fusion. It was significant for the U.S. Government leadership to declare that we wish to bring nuclear fusion energy to technical and commercial viability on an aggressive decadal timescale. Finally, it was significant to recognize that nuclear fusion has a golden opportunity to build in energy justice to start to redress past harms to communities and to facilitate public acceptance.
Dr. Hsu was asked how important international collaboration was in promoting fusion. He replied that international collaboration and coordination are very important. Nuclear fusion energy has long been a worldwide scientific endeavor. New scientific developments must continue to be shared by fusion scientific research at international facilities including ITER. As attention turns to enabling a FPP on an aggressive timescale, targeted opportunities with our international partners must be encouraged. These include shared test facilities, coordination on regulatory and non-proliferation frameworks and developing robust supply chains including fuel supplies.
The U.S. is not the only country that would like to lead the nuclear fusion revolution. China, Japan, Korea, France and England are also pouring millions into nuclear fusion research. In addition, at least a dozen private companies are pursuing nuclear fusion with millions of dollars of private and public funding. Hopefully, all this effort and funding will meet with success in the 2030s.
Ambient office = 74 nanosieverts per hour
Ambient outside 102 nanosieverts per hour
Soil exposed to rain water = 100 nanosieverts per hour
Tomato from Central Market = 117 nanosieverts per hour
Tap water = 90 nanosieverts per hour
Filter water = 73 nanosieverts per hour
Part 1 of 2 Parts
The world is focusing on finding cleaner energy sources. Efforts to develop nuclear fusion are ramping up in the hopes of accelerating the mass adoption of fusion energy. Fusion research is attempting to duplicate the process that powers our Sun. It generates electricity from the heat of nuclear fusion reactions. Many research organizations around the world are working to advance fusion science and create a practical fusion energy source. The commercialization of fusion energy is not yet a reality. Many serious challenges must be overcome.
The potential benefits of nuclear fusion energy are huge in the global energy transition. It holds the promise of being an on-demand, safe and abundant source of carbon-free energy and electricity. The promise of these benefits have prompted a large international effort to accelerate fusion research and development.
The U.S. is a major player in this research. Efforts were significantly accelerated following the implementation of the United States Energy Act of 2020. This legislation laid out multiple provisions to drive forward the movement towards a clean energy future. In March of 2022, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) co-hosted a White House Summit entitled Developing a Bold Decadal Vision for Commercial Fusion Energy. The aim of the Bold Decadal Vision is to establish a strong partnership between the DoE and the fusion private sector. This collaboration will be dedicated to furthering fusion science and developing a U.S. led commercial fusion industry. The Vision will also address a variety of regulatory and security issues associated with commercializing fusion.
The first step towards realizing the Vision came in September of 2022. The DoE announced up to fifty million dollars in funding to launch a new milestone-based fusion development program, as authorized in the Energy Act. The program will support for-profit entities who may team up with national laboratories, universities and other organizations. The purpose of this program is to meet major technical and commercialization milestones toward the successful design of a fusion pilot plant (FPP) that will help bring fusion towards technical and commercial viability.
Dr. Scott Hsu is the Lead Fusion Coordinator for the Office of the Under Secretary for Science and Innovation at the DoE. He is responsible for coordinating fusion energy activities across the multiple DoE program offices. Dr. Hsu recently gave an interview about the fusion activities and how these fit with the overall strategy of the U.S. to transform the energy sector with fusion.
Dr. Hsu was asked about the major challenges faced by the U.S. in the commercialization of fusion energy and how these challenges may be met. He said that there are both technical and non-technical challenges.
Technical challenges are well known and include:
• Achieving and sustaining adequate energy gain in a fusion plasma
• Developing strong materials and concepts to handle the extreme heat and particle flux of a fusion plasma
• Closing the fuel cycle including tritium breeding and processing if needed
Non-technical challenges include:
• Mobilizing adequate public and private funding
• Establishing regulatory, export controls, and nonproliferation frameworks that stimulate public trust and enable timely licensing
• Building a diverse and robust workforce
• Ensuring worldwide robust supply chains and manufacturing capabilities
• Supporting public engagement and acceptance
• Providing for energy justice.
He added that DoE is pursuing a department-wide approach to address all these needs in collaboration with the private sector, non-profits, other government agencies and international partners.
Please read Part 2 next
