Part 2 of 2 Parts (Please read Part 1 first)
     Hopefully, the Biden administration realizes that Israeli leadership will be committed to taking military action to prevent Iran from developing an atomic bomb. This is true regardless of whether Israel’s interim prime minister, Yair Lapid, remains in power or Benjamin Netanyahu manages to return to power.
     So, the big question is, “Where is the Israeli red line?” Would a specific amount of enriched uranium for a nuclear warhead trigger an Israeli air attack to destroy Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow? It is well known that Iran can enrich uranium to ninety percent whenever it chooses. This knowledge is based on Iran’s demonstrated ability to enrich uranium to sixty percent and its work with advanced centrifuges. Israel also knows that Iran has ballistic missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to strike more than eighty percent of Israel’s civilian population.
      There is an international consensus that Iran is not currently able to reduce a nuclear warhead to a size that can be attached to their missiles. However, Iran has been making a lot of progress with that task.   Rafael Mariano Grossi is the Director General of the IAEA. Last year, he said that “inspectors had confirmed that Iran had produced 200 grams of uranium metal.” This is a crucial step for the miniaturization of a nuclear warhead. The terms of the JCPOA prohibits international inspections of Iranian military sites. Only covert intelligence work would reveal if Iran was utilizing clandestine military facilities for even more advanced nuclear weapons development. This could be an Israeli red line.
     Israel is obviously able to strike Iran to slow down its nuclear weapons project. There has recently been an acceleration of Israeli cyberattacks, sabotage and alleged targeted assassination of Iranian nuclear experts over the years. Critics of a possible Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities say that it would only delay the Iranian nuclear program by three to five years at best. However, Israeli policy makers believe that the deterrence that timeframe would afford would be worth the risk to Israel. In addition, the assumption that the Iranians would immediately restart their nuclear weapons program may not be true.
      Nuclear analysts believe that Israel will not accept a nuclear weapons armed Iran with the leverage that Iranian nuclear weapons capable missiles would give its hegemonic ambitions in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and maybe Jordan in the future. There is no analogy between the deterrence of Mutually Assured Destruction during the Cold War and what Israel would tolerate with a nuclear Iranian Supreme Leader.
      Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror is a former head of Israel’s National Security Council. He has said, “Israel will likely need to attack Iran directly to stop it from developing nuclear weapons.” With a nuclear umbrella, “Iran would be free to build a ring of fire around Israel” from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Gaza and Iran. If the U.S. and Iran restore the JCPOA, “Israel will have no choice but to act militarily to prevent Iran from manufacturing a nuclear weapon.” 
     Israel’s Arab allies in the U.S. Central Command in the Middle East are expecting Israel to stop a nuclear Iran. The Biden administration should understand that Israel does not expect the U.S. to join it in any attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities. Israel only wants the U.S. to not get in the way if and when it finds it necessary to strike Iran.

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Ambient office = 110 nanosieverts per hour

Ambient outside = 85 nanosieverts per hour

Soil exposed to rain water = 84 nanosieverts per hour

Tomarto from Central Market = 111 nanosieverts per hour

Tap water = 133 nanosieverts per hour

Filter water = 122 nanosieverts per hour

Part 1 of 2 Parts
     Last May, Israel completed their “Chariots of Fire” (CoF) wargame. It was the most significant and comprehensive wargame in the history of Israel. The CoF featured hundreds of Israeli warplanes in coordination with its regular army, reserves, and elite special forces. The purpose of the CoF was to train its military in anticipation of scenarios that Israel may encounter on multiple fronts.
     The CoF emphasized being nimble to coordinate and adapt because an enemy rarely follows a nation’s war plans. (Indeed, an old saying goes “The first casualty of war is the plan.”) The scope and scale were totally unprecedented for Israel. Some of Israel’s intelligence and security agencies have corroborated that there is no ambiguity in Israel about the need to halt Iran’s goal to dominate the Middle East with nuclear weapons.
     Israel is well aware of the fact that if they attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran will launch the estimated one hundred and fifty thousand Hezbollah missiles in Lebanon and Hamas’s arsenal of rockets in Gaza and as well as attacks from Iran’s new bases in Syria and Iraq. Such a scenario would dwarf the 2006 Hezbollah Second Lebanon War and the combined five Hamas Gazan wars. There would also be Palestinian unrest in the disputed territories and inside Israel which would also complicate matters.
     New alliances are sprouting up as well as changing relationships between nations in the Middle East. These changes are driven by the prospect of an Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear arsenal. These changes include Russia’s relationship with Iran in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Russia’s contradictory relationship with Israel which allows it unrestricted access to strike Iranian weapons factories. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is acting behind the scene but moving toward closer cooperation with Israel in response to Iranian territorial expansion and threshold nuclear weapons status. In addition, U.S. allies Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Jordan are all being affected by estimation of how far Iran might go and how far Israel can bend before it feels that it is has to take action.
     The Iranian leaders are intelligent and pragmatic in spite of their ideological Islamist extremism and hatred for Israel. They know that Israel would feel compelled to act when the Iranian nuclear program crosses a “red” line. There is a great deal of debate on just where that red line is.
     Unfortunately, the possibility of miscalculation is high. Iran has been flaunting its obligation to the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty and ignoring its restrictions on peaceful atomic development in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The situation is swiftly approaching Israel’s nuclear red line. A report recently issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) offers details about Iran increasing its nuclear enrichment on the eve of U.S. President Biden planned trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia.
      If Iran is confident that it knows where Israel red line is, Iranian leaders will probably stop before crossing it. They will then accept the Biden administration’s prompting a return to the JCPOA which will restore critical Iranian economic lifelines. Such a return to the JCPOA would have happened already if Iran could not sell oil to China at high price without any Significant U.S. sanction of penalty.
Please read Part 2 next

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Ambient office = 149 nanosieverts per hour

Ambient outside = 106 nanosieverts per hour

Soil exposed to rain water = 102 nanosieverts per hour

Strawberry from Central Market = 129 nanosieverts per hour

Tap water = 94 nanosieverts per hour

Filter water = 80 nanosieverts per hour

Ambient office = 154 nanosieverts per hour

Ambient outside = 103 nanosieverts per hour

Soil exposed to rain water = 100 nanosieverts per hour

Red bell pepper from Central Market = 144 nanosieverts per hour

Tap water = 92 nanosieverts per hour

Filter water = 81 nanosieverts per hour

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Ambient office = 105 nanosieverts per hour

Ambient outside = 92 nanosieverts per hour

Soil exposed to rain water = 95 nanosieverts per hour

Hierloom tomato from Central Market = 154 nanosieverts per hour

Tap water =78 nanosieverts per hour

Filter water = 64 nanosieverts per hour

Dover Sole from Central = 13 nanosieverts per hour