Part 2 of 2 Parts (Please read Part 1 first)
     The recent progress of nuclear fusion research is promising and the need for zero-carbon emissions is urgent. While public-sector investment remains a major part of the fusion development landscape, private investment has been surging. The value of private investment nearly tripled in 2021. This increase in funding has been caused by a combination of tractional technology venture funding, strategic investments by existing energy companies (such as Eni’s and Equinor’s investments in Commonwealth Fusion Systems) and seed investments by ultrahigh-net-worth individuals (such as Sam Altman’s investment in Helion Energy). Access to capital is allowing private companies to construct larger components for fusion reactors and to design full-scale prototypes. Numerous start-ups hope to be able to operate commercial nuclear fusion reactors before the end of the 2020s.
     Experts say that the next five to ten years will be critical for fusion research. Specifically, here is a list of milestones that can be expected for private fusion research if nuclear fusions is to demonstrate that it can be a practical cheap and safe source of energy.
Net Energy Production
     It must be demonstrated that the energy produced in a fusion reactor can exceed the energy supplied to the reactor. The extreme temperatures required to produce energy from a fusion reaction are on the order of fifty million degrees Celsius. The hotter that the core of the fusion reactor can reach and the more pressure it can withstand without leaking energy, the more net energy it can produce. This level of confinement is a necessity.
Functional Components
     The functional ability of components in various versions of fusion reactors must be verified. These components include extremely powerful high temperature superconduction magnets, plasma injectors (such as the P12 injector demonstrated by General Fusion in 2017), radio frequency heating systems and new wall materials that can survive the intense heat of a fusion reactor’s interior. Successful tests of these major subsystems and components by 2025 would indicate that operational prototype fusion power plants could be functioning by 2030.
Operational fusion reactors
     By 2026, there should be at least one fusion player integrating all major subsystems into a functioning prototype. Such a prototype would also make it possible to conduct a feasibility estimate of the costs of a fusion reactor’s parts manufacturing and assembly. This would be the first model of a fusion power plant’s economics that could really inspire confidence in investors and other decision-makers.
     Life holds few certainties and commercial nuclear fusion is certainly not one of them. As a potential source of zero-emission, dispatchable power, fusion could have a major role to play in the not too distant future. Policy makers and industrial leaders should definitely take it seriously. They must understand what fusion can do and update current regulatory frameworks based on nuclear fission power plants.
     In order to ready for the arrival of viable nuclear fusion generation of electricity, there are many conversations that should begin now. The development of commercial nuclear fusion reactors could have major implications for the future of our society.