Every year the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) puts out a report on the state of the global nuclear power industry and prospect for the future of nuclear energy. The most recent annual report was just released. It is the thirty-seventh edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. Estimations are presented in detail for different regions in “low” and “high” figures for different scenarios. In general, the prospects are positive but the expansion of nuclear power is expected to slow in the not too distant future. The 2017 projection for 2030 shows a decline of forty five gigawatts from the projection for 2030 in the 2016 report.
The March 2011 nuclear disaster at Fukushima, Japan had a serious impact on the growth of nuclear power. Many countries shut down reactors so they could be upgraded to meet new safety standards developed because of Fukushima. The low cost and the abundant supply of natural gas have made the construction of new reactors less attractive and have made some reactors uncompetitive on the energy market. Renewable energy has developed rapidly to the point where build a new renewables power plant is cheaper than building a new nuclear plant in some places. On the positive side, the commitments of some countries to carbon dioxide reduction goals at the twenty-first session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference could increase the demand for nuclear power as a low-carbon choice for electricity generation.
The high scenario projections suggest that there will be an increase of nuclear power by forty two percent above 2016 by 2030, an eighty-three percent increase by 2040 and a one hundred and twenty three percent increase by 2050. The low scenario projections indicate an actual decrease in nuclear power over 2016 of twelve percent by 2030, a decrease of fifteen percent by 2040 and a return to present levels by 2050.
The reason for this wide range of estimations between the low and high scenario lies in the fact that many reactors are scheduled to be retired by 2030, especially in North American and Europe. There are many competing factors that will determine whether or not these retired reactors will be replaced with new reactors. These factors are detailed in a recent IAEA report titled International Status and Prospects for Nuclear Power 2017.
In some cases, factors that will influence the vitality of the global nuclear industry can be well defined or at least anticipated such as the closing of many reactors and the cost of natural gas. Other factors are difficult to anticipate such as changing costs of renewable power and public opinion towards nuclear power. Still other factors are impossible to predict such as a major nuclear accident or a terrorist attack on a nuclear power plant. One final thing that has to be taken into account is the fact that the IAEA is charged to “encourage and assist research on and development and practical applications of atomic energy throughout the world.” This suggests that there may be an inherent bias in their reporting that reflects a desire to make a good case for the expansion of nuclear power.
