It appears that the global nuclear industry is enjoying a renaissance. After being slowed by the Fukushima disaster in early 2011, construction of new reactors is expanding. On the pro nuclear side, there are at least sixty new reactors construction projects worldwide. On the other hand, many of these are in the planned and not contracted phase. With four hundred reactors operating worldwide, sixty new reactors would be a fifteen percent increase in global nuclear capacity. On the other hand, many operating nuclear reactors are reaching the end of their licensed life spans and will need to be shut down. If all the planned reactors are constructed, as of 2030, more reactors will be shut down than will come online so there will be a net decrease in global nuclear power generation.
One of the main arguments these days for the use of nuclear power is the fact that a nuclear power reactor over its life time emits less carbon dioxide than fossil fuel power plants. Proponents of nuclear power are trying to get governments to designate nuclear power as a low-carbon energy source to help mitigate climate change. Critics of nuclear power point out that while nuclear power generation may emit less CO2 that fossil fuel generation, nuclear power still emits more CO2 than sustainable renewable power sources such as hydro, biomass, wind and solar. In addition, sustainable renewable energy plants are more competitive already in some energy markets than nuclear power plants.
I have always maintained that regardless of a variety of other issues, nuclear power may ultimately be rejected by investors on the basis of its viability in today's energy markets. Five nuclear power reactors in the U.S. have already been shut down because they could not compete with other energy sources such as cheap natural gas and ten more reactors may be shut down soon for the same reasons. Silex Systems has been working with a consortium to bring its next generation uranium enrichment technology to market. Two members of the consortium which together hold more than three quarters of the stock have just announced that they are pulling out of the consortium due to " changes in business priorities and difficult market conditions." The big Hinkley Point C nuclear project in the U.K. has been repeatedly delayed because of problems with the financing for the project.
Another threat to global nuclear power is public fear of accidents which was aggravated by the Fukushima disaster triggered by a massive offshore quake. Japan is just in the process of restarting their reactor fleet over major public opposition. Last week, there were multiple serious quakes around Japan including one near Fukushima. This is going to increase the anger and hostility of the Japanese people toward nuclear power and the government that supports it. These quakes will also increase global public resistance to nuclear power projects.
The factors working against nuclear power are piling up and the arguments in favor of nuclear power are being countered. Nuclear power would not even be considered if it were not for the enormous amounts of money that are involved in construction of a nuclear power plant. There is so much money at stake that nuclear projects have a big impact on politics, economics, international trade, diplomacy, etc. It will be interesting to see if the pro or con forces prevail in the nuclear power debate.
