The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a regional intergovernmental organization that is composed of ten Southeast Asian countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. It was founded to “promote intergovernmental cooperation and facilitates economic, political, security, military, educational, and sociocultural integration amongst its members, other Asian countries, and globally.”
This last April, ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE) released a report titled Pre-Feasibility Study on the Establishment of Nuclear Power Plant in ASEAN. The government of Canada supported the work on the report through their Nuclear and Radiological Program Administrative Support (NPRAS) program. This report is the first time in recent years that ASEAN produced an official report that deals comprehensively with the current state of nuclear power development in its member state in the mid-term and long-term. There are three interesting developments mentioned in the report.
First, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines will be in the vanguard to develop commercial nuclear power. Their status as leaders is based on the fact that they have more advanced legal and regulatory frameworks, actual nuclear power infrastructure, and existing organizational and human resources than the other five member nations. These are just a few of the nineteen criteria for nuclear infrastructure that are detailed in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Milestones Approach.
Second, projecting current developments and progress in these five member states, it is estimated that there may be an operational civilian nuclear power plant in Indonesia by 2030 and a possible two more by 2035 located in Malaysia and Thailand. The Philippines and Vietnam have made nuclear power part of their long range planning for sources of power.
Third, Malaysia was singled out as having the most “accomplished” approach to nuclear power because of the progress already made by their nuclear energy program implementation office (NEPIO). The the Malaysian Nuclear Power Corporation is the NEPIO for Malasia. The role of a nation’s NEIPO is to plan, coordinate and lead the implementation of a nuclear power program.
Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar have not said that they would not consider nuclear power, but they have yet to commit any specific plans for necessary infrastructure development. All three have signed bilateral nuclear power cooperation agreements with Russia.
Brunei and Singapore have no current plans for nuclear power projects. Singapore has committed significant resources to developing its capabilities in the areas of nuclear safety and science in its Nuclear Safety and Research Program.
Interest in civilian nuclear power for Southeast Asia began after World War II with the arrival of the Atoms for Peace Program from the United States. One result has been the construction of reactors dedicated to research and medicine in Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand.
The development of a commercial civilian nuclear power reactor can take from ten to fifteen years to complete and cost from six to nine billion dollars. There are often construction delays in the nuclear industry which can raise the cost substantially. If there is strong political support and careful planning involving technical support from establish members of the nuclear industry, it should be possible to build a nuclear power plant on schedule and in budget. Unfortunately, the history of the nuclear industry does not necessarily support this.
Public perception and acceptance is critical to the success of any nuclear power reactor project in ASEAN. The Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011 resulted in a public fear of nuclear power which must be overcome.
In the end, a push for nuclear power in ASEAN would have to be based on a solid argument that other sources of energy are too expensive. Considering the rapid drop in prices for solar and wind energy, that may not be an easy sell.