I have posted many articles on nuclear weapons. Since the end of the Cold War around 1990, there has been a steady decline in the number of nuclear weapons in the U.S. and Russia, which inherited the Soviet Union's arsenal. There have been several disarmament treaties between the two nations guiding this reduction of weapons. Unfortunately, lately there has been a change in their stance toward nuclear weapons. Both the U.S. and Russia have announced programs to refurbish, upgrade and expand nuclear weapons and nuclear delivery system. Each has thousands of nuclear warheads.
Following the annexation of the Crimea by Russia, there has been growing concern among NATO nations about increasing Russian belligerence in Eastern Europe. There have been Russian statements disparaging NATO military strength and their lack of tactical nuclear weapons. Russia possessed tactical nuclear weapons and has said that they would use them if they were losing a ground war in Eastern Europe with NATO. Russian officials have mentioned the possibility of moving nuclear weapons into the Crimea.
Defense ministers of NATO nations are meeting soon in Brussels. Prior to the meeting, a report was compiled that analyzed Russian nuclear strategy. The Russians have increasingly sent air and sea patrols off the borders of NATO nations including flying nuclear bombers over the English Channel just last week.
NATO officials fear that Russia may be lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons. "What worries us most in this strategy is the modernization of the Russian nuclear forces, the increase in the level of training of those forces and the possible combination between conventional actions and the use of nuclear forces, including possibly in the framework of a hybrid war," one diplomat said. Hybrid war is a term that has been applied to Russia's aggression in Ukraine. They sent in troops without Russian uniforms and engaged in disinformation and cyber attacks. This has prompted NATO to reconsider their existing strategy for dealing with Russia.
All of the 28 NATO countries including the U.S. will participate in NATO's Nuclear Planning Group meetings this week. A discussion of Russian nuclear strategy is not on the schedule for the formal meetings but there will be a discussion of Russia in a lunch meeting. Most likely, there will not be any immediate action on the part of NATO but there will be a call for further study of the situation to determine if any changes are needed for NATO's nuclear strategy.
Lately, Russia has been vocally belligerent about its status as a "leading nuclear nation." The Russian President recently said, with respect to potential enemies which would include NATO, "It's best not to mess with us." A U.S. Congressional report last year stated that Russia "seems to have increased its reliance on nuclear weapons in its national security concept". Late last year, the Russian President signed a new military doctrine that named NATO as a major security risk. The new doctrine says that Russia "reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear strike or a conventional attack that endangered the state's existence." Fortunately, calls to include a right for a first strike with nuclear weapons was ignored.
I grew up during the Cold War and I was glad to see the end of it. As a child, I had nightmares about a nuclear holocaust. Now it looks like a new Cold War is brewing. Like dominos falling, Russia could start more aggressive behavior in Eastern Europe with conventional forces, an overwhelming NATO counter attack with conventional weapons could provoke Russia into using tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield, NATO could strike back with nuclear weapons and we would wind up in the middle of World War III with intercontinental nuclear exchanges and the end of human civilization.
