Iran has been in the news a lot lately with respect to the possibility that they may develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. and six other major nations are negotiating with Iran over uranium enrichment and sanctions. The primary issue is to have Iran stop enrichment and open facilities to inspection in return for ending the crippling sanctions. I wrote recently about the attempt of Republicans in the Senate to scuttle the deal before it is signed. They want to impose even more sanctions on Iran but the risk of that is for the other six countries to end sanctions and any hope of a real deal. The Republican answer seems to be that we should consider invading Iran if they don't comply. Israeli leaders have said that Iran should not even have the equipment to enrich uranium and they have threatened to take unilateral actions. I also recently blogged about the use of the questionable concept of breakout or how long it would take for Iran to enrich enough uranium for a weapon as a key element of the negotiation.
Recently there was an article on the Internet VICE channel about what would happen if Iran were to obtain nuclear weapons. They interviewed two experts on International Affairs for their opinions. William H. Tobey is a Senior Fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard and Kamran Bokhari is a Stratfor advisor on the Middle East and South Asia.
Bokhari says that he thinks that the Iranians would secretly develop a nuke but would be hesitant to test it because of the international backlash. Tobey says that it would totally change the way that Iran approached regional actions. He thinks that the Iranians would figure that they could do just about anything to its neighbors and the neighbors would not dare to react with force. But, that would require that the neighbors knew they had the bomb which brings up Bokhari's point about major nuclear power reacting and the risk of sanctions again.
With respect to a threat to Israel, Bokhari says that Israel is so small that even a single nuclear strike would be devastating. He thinks that they will have to assume the worst and take action to prevent Iranian nukes. Tobey agrees that Israel is afraid of Iran having even one nuke and that if the situation does not change, more extreme Israeli governments might be elected with apocolyptic inclinations.
When asked about whether Israel could attack Iran's nuclear facilities, Bokhari said that there were very serious logistical constraints that might prevent Israel from successfully wiping out Iran's nuclear capability. These concerns include the distance to Iran, number of planes required, permitted flight paths and enough powerful bombs to penetrate the concrete and dirt covering underground Iranian facilities.
The interview then switched to what a nuclear attack would do to Israel. Tobey said that the main topic of current discussion was about political and economic fallout. A single bomb would not directly wipe out Israel but the hit to the economy and the reaction of those who survived would be devastating.
If Iran did nuke Israel, the international community would recoil in horror and Iran would become a pariah. They can threaten other nations but could they threaten world powers to trade with them? Very unlikely. They would have to know that the current sanctions would look like a slap on the wrist compared to what would happen if they did nuke Israel.
Another concern about an Iranian nuke is the possibility of an accidental launch. There has also been the fear that Iran could provide a nuclear weapon to a terrorist group but Bokhari is very skeptical about this as am I. You need a serious infrastructure to handle nuclear weapons which the terrorists don't have. It would come back on Iran anyway.
And, finally, Israel's nuclear arsenal has to be taken into account. I am absolutely certain that there are contingency plans for Israel to nuke major cities and oil fields in the Middle East if they feel that they are losing a fight for survival. It is possible that an Iranian nuclear strike might trigger that doomsday scenario. Nobody wants that.
Israeli Prime Minister testifies about Iranian nuclear weapons:
