(This is Part Two of a post about the newly negotiated framework for the Iran nuclear program. - Please read Part One first)
My last post began covering the newly negotiated framework between Iran and the U.N. Security Council (U.S, U.K., Russia, China, France and Germany) dealing with Iran's nuclear program. A final agreement is to be completed by June. Here are the terms of the "framework" with respect to monitoring and sanctions. (Part One covers enrichment and facilities.)
Drafting an agreement to reduce the threat of Iran creating a nuclear bomb has been difficult enough but how can we be sure that Iran is complying with the agreement? Monitoring of Iran's nuclear program is critical to the success of the agreement. Under the new framework, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have continuous access to all of Iran's nuclear facilities. In addition, the IAEA will also monitor the "supply chain that supports Iran's nuclear program" in order to "prevent diversion to a secret program." These new monitoring program are far more thorough and intrusive than any monitoring that Iran has accepted in the past. Iran has also agreed to allow IAEA inspectors monitor Iranian uranium mines and mills for the next twenty five years.
So far we have been talking about what Iran is willing to give up and to allow IAEA to monitor. In return for curtailing its nuclear program, Iran will see a reduction in the international sanctions that have been crippling its economy. While the enrichment, facilities and monitoring terms of the framework are very specific, the lifting of the sanctions is more vague. Sanctions will be removed "if it (Iran) verifiably abides by its commitments." There is no specific timeframe in the new framework for the ending of sanctions.
The new framework states that the "U.S. and E.U. nuclear-related sanctions will be suspended after the IAEA has verified that Iran has taken all of its key nuclear-related steps. If at any time Iran fails to fulfill its commitments, these sanctions will snap back into place." In addition, "the architecture of U.S. nuclear-related sanctions on Iran will be retained for much of the duration of the deal and allow for snap-back of sanctions in the event of significant non-performance." "All past UN Security Council resolutions on the Iran nuclear issue will be lifted simultaneous with the completion, by Iran, of nuclear-related actions addressing all key concerns (enrichment, Fordow, Arak, PMD, and transparency)."
This negotiated framework will have to be refined into a final agreement by June. Then it will have to be approved by the members of the U.N. Security Council and Iran. There are hardliners in the U.S. and Iran that would like to see this deal fail and are working hard to make sure that it does. Frankly, I am more skeptical that the Iranian hardliners will accept the stringent requirements of the agreement than that the U.S, Republican dominated Congress will reject the final deal. If the deal fails, and the Republicans try to pass bills for even more sanctions, it is likely that the other members of the U.N. Security Council will drop their sanctions against Iran. If that happens, the Iranians will be free to continue their nuclear program and will have an influx of capital from trade that will be available to finance their nuclear program. No deal is perfect, but this new framework would give us more time to work on preventing the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon.
