I have been following with great interest the negotiations between Iran and the U.N. Security Council members including the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany over the Iran nuclear program. Fearing that Iran may be working on the development of nuclear weapons, severe trade sanctions have been instituted against Iran. After months of negotiations and missed deadlines, a deal has finally been reached. Moderates and liberals in Iran and the Security Council nations hail the agreement as a win for diplomacy while conservative factions among the U.N. members complain that the deal is a loss for the world community and that Iran will continue on the path to nuclear weapons. Here are some of the details about the new Iranian agreement:
1.Iranian Nuclear Program. Iran will be allowed to continue its nuclear power program. For the first eight years of the agreement, Iran has agreed to limit uranium enrichment as well as related research and development.
2. Iranian low-enriched uranium stockpile. Iran has agreed to reduced its current stockpile of low-enriched uranium (enriched less than 3.67 percent) to about six hundred and sixty pounds. This means that they will have under two percent of their current stockpile remaining.
3. International sanctions. Under the new deal, all the sanctions imposed by U.N. members will be removed as well as other international sanctions such as the embargo on Iranian oil sales which has reduced the Iranian economy by one fifth.
4. Monitoring Iran Compliance. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will be charged with monitoring and verification of Iranian compliance. The IAEA will inspect Iranian nuclear sites and obtain answers to past Iranian nuclear weapons research and development.
5. Iranian Violations. The time it takes to develop a nuclear weapon is called the "breakout period." The new agreement is supposed to insure that for the next fifteen years, Iran would need more than a year to create a nuclear weapon if it breaks the agreement.
6. Iranian Purchase of Nuclear Weapons. Iran will be prohibited from purchasing major weapons on the international market for at least five years and prohibited from purchasing missile technology for at least eight years.
7. Iranian Nuclear Facilities. Iran has promised to convert a major nuclear research facility named Fordrow into an international center for nuclear and physics research. Iran will be allowed to rebuild and modernize the Arak heavy water reactor for peaceful research and medical purposes. Iran has promised not to use the reactor to create weapons grade uranium.
8. Next Steps in the Process. The U.S. Congress has sixty days to review and vote on the agreement. Many Republican members of Congress are skeptical of the deal. The U.S. President has said that he will veto any Congressional action to back out of the agreement. The U.N. Security Council will have to vote to approve the agreement. Hardliners in Iran are also against the deal and may prevent Iran from ratifying the agreement.
9. Ongoing Review. Ministers from the ratifying nations including Iran will meet every two years to review Iranian compliance.
If all parties vote to approve the new agreement, only time will tell if Iran will comply faithfully. It is true that lifting the sanctions will result in a lot of oil revenues for Iran that would make it possible for Iran to covertly work on nuclear weapons if they wanted to. Israel was not involved in the negotiations and is very upset about the deal. They have threatened to attack Iran if they feel that Iran is working on nuclear weapons.
Even if the U.S. Congress has enough votes to reject the agreement over the U.S. President's support, some or all of the other members of the U.N. Security Council may decide to drop the sanctions and trade with Iran. This new agreement may be the best that the U.S. can hope for.
