Since Donald Trump started talking about other countries under treaty for U.S. defense who were not pulling their weight, the question of nuclear weapons has been brought up. Trump thinks that if another country such as Japan is not contributing enough to their own defense, then the U.S. should back off and leave them on their own. When asked whether or not Japan should have their own nuclear weapons, Trump said "Maybe they would be better off - including with nukes, yes, including with nukes."
Apparently, Trump is unaware of the Japanese constitution which was drafted in 1947 by the Allies after World War II that forbids Japan from having offensive forces and weapons with which they could wage war on other countries.
Article 9 of the Japanese constitution states that the Japanese people “forever renounce war.” It also says that Japan will never maintain “land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential.” While nuclear weapons are not actually mentioned specifically in Article 9, they are major offensive weapons and such weapons and their delivery systems would logically be covered by Article 9. Japan does have some military capability for self-defense including land, sea, and air forces.
In addition to the constitution of Japan forbidding offensive weapons like nuclear bombs, there is also the fact the U.S. brought countries like Japan and South Korea under its nuclear umbrella to discourage them from developing their own nuclear weapons programs. Both Japan and South Korea certainly have the technical capability to develop their own nuclear weapons. But, this would lead to a nuclear arms race in southeast Asia which would certainly draw in China. Such a development would destabilize that region and go against U.S. strategic interests.
The Abe government in Japan is considering revising their constitution. Any changes would have to be voted on by the citizens of Japan. Many members of Abe's political party want to modify the wording of the section in Article about military capability in order to clarify the right of Japan to expand and maintain military capability in the name of self-defense. If the U.S. withdrew its nuclear umbrella from Japan, it is likely that Japan would embark on the development of nuclear weapons.
Being realistic, it is difficult to believe that a small vulnerable country like Japan does not have top secret plans for rapid conversion of industries producing consumer products to the production of weapons and military vehicles, ships and planes. There are also likely plans for the production of nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Indeed, the national security institutions of Japan would be derelict in their duties if they had not developed such plans. And, considering how automated the Japanese industries are, the retooling of Japanese industry would probably happen very quickly if we withdrew our protection and the geopolitical situation deteriorated.
If Donald Trump is elected President and turns away from the countries that we are under treaty to protect with our nuclear arsenal, he may unintentionally destabilize southeast Asia and trigger a nuclear arms race.
