Part Two of Three Parts (Please read Part One first)
On the other hand, we could accept that N.K. has become a nuclear-armed nation. We could try to use diplomacy, sanctions, and other international pressure to prevent the growth of N.K.’s nuclear arsenal but they would still have nuclear weapons. Kim might be tempted to escalate provocations against S.K. with conventional weapons assuming that his nuclear weapons would prevent a robust response from the U.S. and S.K. militaries.
With respect to the threat posed by N.K. missiles and warheads, we could try to rely on antimissile defenses such as the THADD antimissile system that the U.S. is in the process of deploying in S.K. However, even the deployment of antimissiles systems can have a destabilizing effect on the international situation. China has already complained about the THADD system because they are afraid that if there is a conflict in the South China Sea, the THADD system in S.K. might be able to interfere with Chinese missiles. N.K. is also threatening to hit cities in the U.S. While the U.S. does have antimissiles defense systems in place in Alaska and California, these systems have not proven to be one hundred percent effective.
The new U.S. President has suggested that other countries such as Japan and South Korea are not paying enough for U.S. nuclear protection and that perhaps they should build their own nuclear weapons. This is a departure from the U.S. policy of preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons by promising non-nuclear nations that the U.S. would protect them. With increasing belligerence on the part of N.K. and ambiguous signals from the U.S. with respect to existing treaties, Japan and South Korea might consider developing their own nuclear weapons programs. This would definitely concern both Russia and China and might destabilize the current balance of power in the Far East.
It has also been suggested that the U.S. deploy nuclear weapons to S.K. This would go against the long-standing demand that the U.S. has made for a Korean Peninsula that is completely free of nuclear weapons. The U.S. already maintains conventional forces in S.K. to deter N.K. aggression and the U.S. Navy can easily stage nuclear attacks from offshore if needed. It would appear that moving U.S. nuclear weapons into S.K. would be of little use.
Critics of the U.S. policy towards N.K. point out that the U.S. has not really brought to bear the full weight of international pressure and sanctions on N.K. Major U.S. and U.N. sanctions were just put into effect last year. N.K. is a poor country and only continues to exist with major support from China. The new U.S. President is trying to force or bribe the Chinese into exerting more pressure on N.K. to disarm. The U.S. may consider sanctions against China in order to compel them to help with N.K. On the other hand, there have been some sanctions on N.K. in the past and N.K. proved to be adaptable in circumventing many of these sanctions through the use of front companies and the covert assistance of other countries.
Please read Part Three
Artist's concept of Kim Jong-un:
