The U.N. is currently hosting meetings of one hundred and thirty nations on the issue of banning all nuclear weapons worldwide. Unfortunately, the nine nations with that actually have nuclear weapons voted against holding the meetings. The United States and Russia have both said that they are interested in reducing the number of nuclear weapons in their arsenals but both have committed to spending hundreds of billions of dollars goes arsenals in the coming years. Due to deteriorating relationships between nuclear-armed powers, the bulletin of atomic scientists has moved its doomsday clock up to a little over two minutes before midnight which represents nuclear war. But in addition to the danger of nuclear war, there is also the danger of an accidental detonation of a nuclear device. The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research has issued a new report highlighting the dangers of the accidental or deliberate use of nuclear weapons.
The new report says that “Nuclear deterrence works—up until the time it will prove not to work. The risk is inherent and, when luck runs out, the results will be catastrophic. The more arms produced, particularly in countries with unstable societies, the more potential exists for terrorist acquisition and use of nuclear weapons.”
North Korea probably has about a dozen nuclear warheads and has been belligerently threatening to attack its neighbors for years. North Korea has to develop a miniature warhead suitable for mounting on ICBM. They also need to develop and test ICBMs capable of caring the warheads. It is estimated that this will happen within the next 2 to 4 years. With the recent increase in threatening language from the United States president, the danger that the unstable dictator in North Korea will eventually detonate one of his nuclear bombs in an attack against a neighbor has been increasing.
There are strained relations between Pakistan and India and they have fought three wars since 1949. Both have over 100 large nuclear warheads and the means to deliver them. Terrorist attacks carried out in India by groups who crossed the border from Pakistan have inflamed the situation between the two countries. India has threatened to chase terrorists across the border into Pakistan. Pakistan has tactical nuclear weapons which it has dispatched to its border with India. It has threatened to use them if India invades.
For years Russia has been flying nuclear-capable bombers in an out of the airspace of other nations without notification or permission. They have sailed nuclear submarines in and out of the territorial waters of other countries without notification or permission. They have brag about their arsenal of tactical nuclear devices and said they would not hesitate to use them if they were losing a conventional ground war with NATO in Eastern Europe. Since the seizure by Russia of the Crimea from Ukraine several years ago, the relationship between the US and Russia has deteriorated significantly. Considering that both these countries have thousands of warheads pointed at each other ready to launch is of great concern.
In the past decades, there been several close calls where a nuclear war was almost started by accident. There have also been losses of nuclear weapons that were being transported by plane. In the U.S., the condition of missile silos and launch systems has been deteriorating and one missile was almost accidentally launched. An accidental launch could trigger a nuclear war.
In addition to these possibilities of deliberate or accidental nuclear war, there is great concern that new technical capabilities referred to as cyber warfare might permit hostile states or terrorist groups to launch or interfere with the test of the nuclear weapons of another nation. Interference with early warning systems and launch systems could lead to unintended launches.
No matter how much nuclear-armed nations claim that their arsenals are safe from accidental launch or deliberate interference, the truth is that the whole world is in danger from these nuclear arsenals and the only real solution to the problem is the elimination of nuclear weapons however difficult that may be.
