Yesterday, I blogged about the addition of a new cruise missile to India’s nuclear arsenal. Today I am going to talk about Pakistan’s nuclear posture with respect to attacking India with nuclear weapons, its main regional rival and enemy. India and China have both stated that they will not be the first to use nuclear weapons in an armed conflict. In contrast, Pakistan maintains that there are circumstances regarding actions of India which could cause them to escalate to nuclear warfare.
Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Asif, appeared on Pakistan television last Monday and announced that Pakistan is ready to use nuclear weapons on India in order to survive. He said “We should pray that such an option never arises, but if we need to use them (nuclear weapons) for our survival we will.” He accused India of backing anti-Pakistani terrorists as their soldiers in a proxy war with Pakistan. He specifically mentioned the Pakistani Taliban and Baloch separatists of two terrorist organizations receiving Indian aid.
Asif’s statement echoed that a high-level Pakistani official when he threatened India with nuclear weapons. Former President Pervez Musharraf expressed a similar attitude after he left office when he said, “We do not want to use nuclear capability but if our existence comes under threat, who do we have these nuclear weapons for?”
The Strategic Plans Division (SPD) of Pakistan is responsible for the Pakistani nuclear arsenal. In 2002, the first head of the SPD, Lieutenant General Khalid Kidwai, mentioned four situations which could cause Pakistan to use nuclear weapons against India.
· If India invades a large part of Pakistan.
· If India destroys large parts of Pakistan’s army or air force.
· If India tries to strangle Pakistan economically.
· If India tries to destabilize Pakistan politically. This would include attempts by India to create large scale internal subversion of Pakistan.
In his television appearance this week, Asif seemed to be suggesting that India was engaged in scenario number four above when he mentioned India’s support for terrorists operating inside Pakistan.
Pakistan has been working on developing its nuclear arsenal in order to carry out its threat if India engages in any of the four scenarios that were outlined above. Recently Indian officials began talking about what they called a “Cold Start” doctrine. This meant that India would consider quick and limited attacks inside of Pakistan in response to a terrorist attack inside India carried out by Pakistani terrorists backed by the Pakistani government. In response to Indian statements, Pakistan began developing tactical nuclear weapons which could be used to counter Indian Cold Start incursions.
In 2011, Pakistan began testing the Hatf-9 (Nasr) missile which it said was “Short Range Surface to Surface Multi Tube Ballistic Missile.” A statement at the time of the first test said, “NASR, with a range of 60 km, carries nuclear warheads of appropriate yield with high accuracy, shoot and scoot attributes. This quick response system addresses the need to deter evolving threats. The test was a very important milestone in consolidating Pakistan’s strategic deterrence capability at all levels of the threat spectrum.”
Earlier this year, Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Vincent R. Stewart, the director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, said with respect to Pakistani tactical nuclear weapons, “We anticipate that Pakistan will continue [its] development of new delivery systems, including cruise missiles and close-range ‘battlefield’ nuclear weapons to augment its existing ballistic missiles.”
If there is a nuclear war between Pakistan and India, both sides will suffer great damage and much nuclear fallout as the winds shift with the seasons. Even the exchange of a few warheads could trigger adverse effects in the atmosphere of the whole northern hemisphere.
Hatf-9 (Nasr) missile:
