Part 1 of 2 Parts
The United States Nuclear Posture Review is a process to determine what the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. security strategy should be. The first review was held in 1994 and has been repeated every eight years since then. The final report is submitted to Congress and classified as National Security related.
The 2002 NPR required the Pentagon to draft contingency plans for possible use against seven countries including China, Iraq, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Russia and Syria.
The 2010 NPR by the Obama Administration renounced the creation of any new nuclear weapons and ruled out nuclear attacks against any states without nuclear weapons as long as they comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. North Korea and Iran are excluded from protection under this rule.
Now it is time for the Trump administration to carry out a new NPR. A draft of the new NPR has been released and there are significant changes from the 2002 NPR. Last October, it was reported that Trump was talking about having a nuclear arsenal that was ten times as big as the current arsenal. The new NPR draft does not include anything that dramatic.
One change to the review has to do with the rule about not creating any new nuclear weapons. The draft calls for the development of new low-yield nuclear weapons. The argument for these new weapons is that the current nuclear warheads in the U.S. arsenal are too big and devastating to ever be used. If we had low-yield nuclear weapons, other countries would be more ready to believe that we would actually use them. Trump’s NPR refers to the new low-yield weapons as supplemental devices that will enhance deterrence.
The draft NPR says that Russia is threatening to use such weapons and the U.S. has to match Russian weaponry. It is a fact that Vladimir Putin has bragged about his arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons and has said that if he was losing a conventional ground war with NATO troops, that he would consider being the first to use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield.
Critics of the expanding the low-yield option point out that the U.S. already has over a thousand nuclear weapons with a low-yield option in its arsenal. There is little military justification for the creation of more. The current senior policy director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation said, “Making the case that we need more low-yield options is making the case that this president needs more nuclear capabilities at his disposal, regardless of the fact that we have 4,000 nuclear weapons in our active stockpile, which is more than enough to destroy the world many times over. So I don’t think it makes a convincing case that we somehow lack capabilities. And, in fact, I don’t think you can make the case that this president needs any more capabilities.”
The draft NPR contradicts itself. On the one hand, it says that we need to have more low-yield options to convince potential enemies that we would be more likely to use nuclear weapons in a conflict. Then it says that having more low-yield options does not increase the likelihood that we would resort to nuclear weapons in a conflict. The NPR offers no evidence to support its characterization of potential enemies’ opinion of our readiness to use nuclear weapons.
The bottom line is that the Trump administration wants to spend a lot of money to build more nuclear weapons. Considering that we and the Russians already have enough nuclear warheads to end human civilization many times over, their request for more of these weapons would appear to be primarily motivated by political and economic considerations. Political because they believe that having more weapons will make the U.S. appear more powerful. Economic because defense contractors will make billions of dollars building the new weapons. One thing their request for more nuclear weapons is not is good military policy.
Another change from the previous NPR is the fact that the new draft of the NPR makes scant reference to the critical role that diplomacy should play in nuclear strategy. No one can “win” a nuclear war. The best nuclear strategy is to prevent a nuclear war. Unfortunately, the nation’s diplomatic corps have been decimated by the Trump administration with many critical diplomatic posts going unfilled for more than a year.
The new draft NPR also makes no mention of Article VI of the U.N. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons although it does make vague references to reduction on nuclear weapons in the U.S. from Cold War levels. The U.S. has signed this treaty which obligates it to work on nuclear disarmament. If the U.S. proceeds with a major investment in the creation of new nuclear weapons, other signatories of the treaty may decide that the U.S. is not really serious about disarmament. This could reduce their commitment to disarmament.
The U.S., while not a signatory of Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, did voice strong support for the work of the Treaty organization in the last NPR. The new NPR states that the U.S. will not resume nuclear testing unless it is deemed necessary, what ever that means.
The draft NPR does affirm the U.S. support for NATO. However, Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO in his speeches and tweets. He has said that other NATO nations are not paying their fair share for the security that NATO provides.
There has been great concern that Trump is erratic and juvenile. People are afraid that he might capriciously order a nuclear strike against a perceived adversary. After all, the U.S. president has the sole authority to order the use of nuclear weapons. The draft NPR tries to reassure readers that “Any U.S. decision to employ nuclear weapons would follow a deliberative process.” The truth of the matter is that the Joint Chiefs would have about five minutes to try to talk the President out of using nuclear weapons. If he cannot be dissuaded from such action, then the entire U.S. military is bound by the Constitution to obey him.
In any case, the new draft NPR primarily reflects the policies of Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford. It cannot be said to be the policy of Trump except in such broad strokes as “spend more money on more nukes.” Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail when it comes time for Congress to pass budgets for military hardware.
Please read Part 2
